Thursday, 19 June 2014

Canucks and Lightning an even bet to win the Stanley Cup in 2015.

Apparently the Stanley Cup odds for next season are out, and Vancouver TEAM 1040 is puzzled that the Canucks and the Tampa Bay Lightning are even at 25 to 1 to win the Cup in 2015.  They mention that the Lightning made the playoffs, and they have Steven Stamkos and Ben Bishop.  The Canucks, sigh...

This is a perfect illustration that casino odds don't necessarily reflect the likelihood that a team willl win the Cup, but rather the likelihood that gamblers will bet on that team to win the Cup.  And teams with large, rabid fan bases like the Leafs and Canucks and Rangers and Habs will have a lot of people who will bet with their hearts rather than their brains.

And the casinos will adjust their lines to reflect this, to entice money on the Lightning and other smaller-market teams, to keep their books even.  This ensures that they don't have a nightmare scenario, where massive sums are bet on a particular team like the Rangers who end up winning, without being offset by a bunch of money bet on all the other teams.  The casino isn't really interested in who will win, or predicting who will win, they just want to make sure to make money, and they do that by equalizing the risk of a Senators win vs. a Leafs win.

And if still more money flows to the Canucks than the Lightning, the casino will react and move the line some more, and you'll see the Canucks getting better odds of winning it all, and the Lightning made an even longer shot to win, until the books balance again.

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