Wednesday, 19 June 2013

The Canadiens will draft Frédérik Gauthier, Émile Poirier and Jacob de la Rose in the 2013 draft

I've been following the NHL mock drafts, and have done two critiques so far (here, and here).  They've got a new updated version, so here is my savant analysis.

First off, I want to comment that it's unfortunate they do not archive and date their mocks, and explain the reasoning behind their changes.  I've contacted the editors of the site, and they've explained it has to do with technical reasons, which is fine as an excuse, but it's still a detriment to the fans who visit.  They need to sort that out.

Second, they don't have us drafting goalies in the second and third round, like they did in the second version of their mock that I commented on.  I'd tipped them off that it was unlikely to happen, and good for them, they listened.  Now, it's up to Mr. Bergevin to take heed...

1)  In the first round, they have us drafting Frédérik Gauthier, which would be great if it happened.  Most mocks I see elsewhere now have him tantalizingly out of reach.  Looking at the guys who bump him down, there are no big surprises, no 'fast risers', it's just a shuffling of the usual suspects and somehow the big local boy centre falls in our lap.  Cool.

2)  Actually, they now have Samuel Morin slated at #11, so there's your fast riser.  I guess in their view, his combo of size, snarliness, mobility and potential is too enticing for the Flyers to pass up.  Pity.  He does get a lot of buzz on the blogosphere, and has grown more prominent in people's awareness.  Before, he was deemed a big project some teams would go for in the early second round.

3)  At #34 and #36, they have us picking up Émile Poirier and Jacob de la Rose, respectively.  I've heard more hype about the latter than the former, but don't know enough to complain about either player.  Other homeboys that would be available in these slots would be William Carrier, Laurent Dauphin, Marc-Olivier Roy, and Anthony Duclair.

4)  Our third second-rounder, #55, nets us Rimouski goaltender (see what I did there?) Philippe Desrosiers.  In the last version, we picked him up early in the third.  

5)  In the third round we have two picks, Dallas' from the Erik Cole trade at #71, and our own pick at #86.  We're slated for Gabryel Paquin-Boudreau, a centre from Baie Comeau, and Alex Henriksson, a forward from Farjestads.  

Now, I don't know anything good or bad about these guys, but again I'll beat my drum and point to Mason Geertsen, still projected to go in the late third round.  Not a huge talent guy, but big and strong and plays tough, a little mean, I say we bet on him.

More perplexing, they still have Jonathan Ismaël Diaby going in the fifth round.  He's gotten a lot of attention, and is ranked 37th among North American skaters, so I don't understand how he'd still be around in the fifth round, with the premium put on size and toughness in Colon Campbell's NHL.  

Mr. Diaby is another guy who won't be confused with Paul Coffey or Larry Robinson, but maybe he can be a Gilles Lupien, or even better a Craig Ludwig if we develop him properly.  If he's really available that late, we have to make a move to get this guy.  I wouldn't mind if we took him much earlier.

6)  Oh, did I mention we don't have a fourth or fifth-rounder?  Parce que James Wisniewski et Davis Drewiske (ça rhyme en crime)?  Anyway, Mr. Bergevin, let fly with Michael Ryder's rights, and Yannick Weber's, and get us more picks.  'Stie.

They have Jordan Subban slated to go in the mid-fourth.  At that price I wouldn't blink.

7)  In the sixth round, at #176, we get Andrei Sigarev, a left-winger out of St. Petersburg.  Christopher Clapperton, a guy out of Blainville-Boisbriand who had a bit of hype at the start of the season, goes three picks later.

8)  In the seventh, we get a 6'1", 215 lbs. left winger out of the States.  Isn't there anyone bigger we could get, like the 6'5" winger a couple of picks later?

9)  They have Nathan McKinnon going first overall, then Seth Jones, then Jonathan Drouin.  Sasha Barvov goes fourth overall.  Nikita Zadorov stubbornly refuses to fall to 25th, going at #10 in this mock.

10)  They still project Mads Eller to go undrafted.


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  2. Hello Normand.

    Thanks for this post; starved for some Habs Draft content. A little off topic to begin with; I have a gut feeling Tampa Bay GM Yzerman will take Barkov at #3. I don't think he likes smaller players. Look at how he remade his team, especially the defense (Ohlund, Salo, Carle, Brewer). All bigger bodies. Martin St Louis he inheirited. Whenever he got a chance to trade (Cory Conacher) or bring someone in; it was always for a bigger player.

    I'm hoping the Habs can move up but if they can grab a big winger with net-crashing ability; Adam Erne or William Carrier or a big, mean Dman like a Samuel Morin at #25 then I'd be more than happy with that selection. Just not sure if Gauthier or Morin would be there at #25 so I think a big winger who can skate and crash the net like Bourque and Pacioretty would be more likely and ideal selections.

    In the 2nd round players like; Emile Poirer, Laurent Dauphin, Jacod De La Rose or Jonathan Ismeal Diaby would be great value picks. I think Dauphin may fall into the 2nd rd because of his lack of size. TSN's Craig Button has a saying "team's over-rate size at the draft and under-rate skill", so maybe Dauphin could be available in the 2nd round like Sebastian Collberg was the year before. I know the Habs have alot of similar small players with skill but were talking abt;

    A) a centreman with some offensive ability
    B) a player who will need 4-5yrs to develop.

    The make-up of the team can radically change in that time frame thru trades and UFAs. At the combine he was measured at 6'1", 167lbs so if he can pack on 10-15lbs in 4-5yrs then, play at 175-180lbs he should be able to withstand the rigors of the NHL. He could be over-looked and under-valued because of his lack of size but his game is built on speed and skill not brute force. So in 4-5yrs our centres could be Galchenyuk (6'1", 196lbs), Eller (6'2" 209lbs), Michael Bournival (5'11", 192lbs) and Brady Vail (6'0", 190lbs). Galchenyuk, Bournival and Vail are still growing and should fill out around 200lbs then you can no longer say the Habs are small down the middle.

    PS Do you get the feeling a trade is brewing? Not a fan of Flames GM Jay Feaster but he is definitely on the hot seat as ownership have told him they expect to make the playoffs next season despite losing their best Dman (Bouwmeister), Captain (Iginla) and possibly not having a goalie (Kipper). Calgary desperately needs centres and we have some depth there with Plekanec, Desharnais, Galchenyuk, Eller, White and Dumont. Everyone at HIO seems to want DD gone and say his contract in unmovable but when you look at who the Flames have down the middle (Stajan, Hudler, Cervenka, Backlund, Reinhart & Horack); Pleks, DD & Eller are all better options.

    Pleks has my vote to be traded. The good is he is a speedy, 200ft smallish centre who can play in all situations and produce 50-60 points a year. Also he has never had a major injury to his knee or ankle. Can also be reunited with Cammalleri and have Tanguay on the other wing. This could make him an attractive option to the Flames.

    The bad is he has never scored more that 70pts, never had a good playoffs, only ave on faceoffs and has already peaked as a player. Its not like he will go to Calgary and put up 80pts and score 40goals. He is still our best centre but he is 31 in October. The offensive void can be picked up by Galchenyuk, DD and Eller. Eller, Dumont and White can do some of the PK and defensive things, although not as well as Pleks but losing him is not as catastrophic as many seem to believe.

    If Feaster is looking to save his job; then we can maybe move Pleks and our #25 for Glencross and their #6pick. (Don't forget when he was GM of Tampa he traded #4 pick overall, Joni Pitkanen, for Ruslan Fedotenko.) The guy should be on every speed dial of every GM in the league.