Tuesday, 8 March 2016

You say tank, I say engineered dive.

With spring approaching, a young man's fancy turns to thoughts of the draft.  When his team is winding down an abject season.

According to NHL Lottery Simulator, the Canadiens are still only the ninth-best worst team in the league, with lottery odds of 5%, one in twenty chance of hitting the bullseye on the dartboard.  Heck, I could do better than that, unless the waitress has my number and can sell me rather than just wait for my orders.

Giving the simulator a workout, I get an All Canadian result on the first pull of the Wheel, Flames-Leafs-Oilers 1, 2, 3, and us getting 9th overall.  Let's spin again.

And we get:


Montreal Canadiens


Edmonton Oilers


Arizona Coyotes

Draft Order
1 Montreal Canadiens
2 Edmonton Oilers
3 Arizona Coyotes
4 Toronto Maple Leafs
5 Calgary Flames
6 Winnipeg Jets
7 Columbus Blue Jackets
8 Buffalo Sabres
9 Vancouver Canucks
10 Ottawa Senators
11 New Jersey Devils
12 Carolina Hurricanes
13 Colorado Avalanche
14 Philadelphia Flyers

You have run the simulator 2 times.

I'll stick with this, despite the sub-optimal results at 2 and 3, the perennial losers from Edmonton who squander young prospects with their ineptitude, and Gary Bettman's pet American franchise, which he has coddled and propped up for years.

It makes you wonder though, how much Phoenix would give up to swap their #3 pick for the first overall, with local-born Auston Matthews as the prize.  Would it start with Anthony Duclair and a second-rounder?  Plus Laurent Dauphin?

Jarred Tinordi?

And making our way to Sports Club Stats, we find that:
Montreal Canadiens Playoff Chances
Did not play, playoff odds down 0.2 to 1.1%

At what point does the ref finish his ten count and call this fight?  This is no standing eight count, we're flat on our backs, and everyone can see the little cartoon birds fluttering and circling over our heads.  We have x's where our eyes should be, and our tongue is hanging out.

Looking at the mock draft sites,

Draftsite has us picking Calgary Hitmen defenceman Jake Bean at #9.  Pierre-Luc Dubois goes to the Sens at #8 (Drat!), and Julien Gauthier to the Flyers at #11, according to them.

First of all, I don't know anything about the young man, but that's a terrible pick for our team.  I don't want anyone named Mr. Bean playing on our team.  I'm nothing if not superficial, I kneejerk quite a bit to those kind of things.  I hated Nick Schmaltz too as a prospect, sight unseen.  And Boone Jenner.  So there.

But also, and more importantly, it would take huge cojones for Marc Bergevin and Trevor Timmins to pass up Julien Gauthier like that, what with his pedigree and local roots.  They'd have to really hate the player, to pass up a huge scoring winger like that.  As if it wasn't an organizational need.

MyNHLdraft has us at ninth in their current mock draft too, but deed us Michael McLeod, a 6'2" centre who is the object of many Canadiens fans' affection.  That I could get on board with.

They also have the Sens picking Monsieur Dubois at #8, and the Flyers again snagging Julien Gauthier at #13.

I'm kind of over that whole deal of the Flyers fishing in our pond and coming up with Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier and Samuel Morin.  Enough.

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