Sunday 13 October 2013

Louis Leblanc vs. Chris Kreider: did the Canadiens mess up at the 2009 draft?

Regarding the Louis Leblanc vs. Chris Kreider draft decision in the 2009 NHL draft, a topic of some discussion among Canadiens fans, some revisionism is being aired  that claims Chris Kreider was ranked higher by NHL Central Scouting than Louis, and that is demonstrably false.

Louis Leblanc was ranked #13 among North American skaters, Chris Kreider #14.  Here are the Top 30 ranked North American skaters for the 2009 draft.



North American Skater Final Rankings

RANKNAMETEAM (LEAGUE)
1TAVARES, JOHNLONDON (OHL)
2DUCHENE, MATTBRAMPTON (OHL)
3KANE, EVANDERVANCOUVER (WHL)
4SCHENN, BRAYDENBRANDON (WHL)
5SCHROEDER, JORDANU OF MINNESOTA (WCHA)
6MOORE, JOHNCHICAGO (USHL)
7GLENNIE, SCOTTBRANDON (WHL)
8DESPRES, SIMONSAINT JOHN (QMJHL)
9COWEN, JAREDSPOKANE (WHL)
10KASSIAN, ZACKPETERBOROUGH (OHL)
11KULIKOV, DMITRYDRUMMONDVILLE (QMJHL)
12ASHTON, CARTERLETHBRIDGE (WHL)
13LEBLANC, LOUISOMAHA (USHL)
14KREIDER, CHRISANDOVER (HIGH-MA)
15KADRI, NAZEMLONDON (OHL)
16ELLIS, RYANWINDSOR (OHL)
17ELLIOTT, STEFANSASKATOON (WHL)
18FERRARO, LANDONRED DEER (WHL)
19HOLLAND, PETERGUELPH (OHL)
20PALMIERI, KYLEUSA U-18 (USDP)
21CARON, JORDANRIMOUSKI (QMJHL)
22BUDISH, ZACHTEAM SOUTH WEST (MHSEL)
23BUTTON, RYANPRINCE ALBERT (WHL)
24LEDDY, NICKEDEN PRAIRIE (HIGH-MN)
25DE HAAN, CALVINOSHAWA (OHL)
26PARADIS, PHILIPPESHAWINIGAN (QMJHL)
27OLSEN, DYLANCAMROSE (AJHL)
28SHORE, DREWUSA U-18 (USDP)
29EAKIN, CODYSWIFT CURRENT (WHL)
30BROWN, CHRISUSA U-18 (USDP)

Why this is even being debated is mysterious to some, as both prospects are experiencing growing pains, and still apprenticing in the AHL.  


One reason is that Chris Kreider's flash was more intense than Louis', since he produced in the playoffs.  Louis Leblanc had some good moments in what was a disastrous 2011-12 season for the Canadiens, so his NHL accomplishments are devalued somewhat.


Chris Kreider also looks better on paper, meaning he's 6'3" and 230 lbs, a notable advantage in Colin Campbell's NHL.  Louis Leblanc is still listed at a slender 6'0", 178 lbs, although he's had encouraging results growing his frame in this off-season.  But Mr. Kreider will always have that size advantage, that's in large part why we have some armchair scouting directors re-writing history.  


I didn't do any pre-reading before the 2009 draft, so I didn't have any opinions one way or another.  Now I understand that some fans may legitimately have had a preference for one player or another at the time, but after the draft, all the writeups I read presented it as a draft that worked out perfectly for us.  The local boy who was highly rated happened to be there when we were picking, and we didn't have to skip over any more highly rated prospects to take him, as some would have wanted to do with Angelo Esposito a couple years previous.  


Louis Leblanc wasn't touted as a scoring superstar, just a skilled, smart player.  I imagined a Guy Carbonneau or Patrice Bergeron, a player like that, who'll be defensively responsible but has offensive skill, who won't hurt your team with dumb mistakes, a good skater who can play on a third line.  He still has a good chance to fulfill that promise.


Overall, we can appreciate what a player with Chris Kreider's profile would do for the mix in our prospect group, and we can argue the merits of both players, but we can't re-write the past.  Louis Leblanc was at least as good a prospect at the 2009 draft, the Canadiens didn't ignore a better prospect to take a lesser player just because he was French-Canadian, as is often stated or implied.  They picked the best available player, and for once it worked out that the kid was a local boy.  

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