Another study shows that the Canadiens and Trevor Timmins draft well.

It's topical, with the NHL draft having taken place this weekend, for fans to question their team's drafting acumen and expertise.  It's certainly easy to critique a team's record with hindsight, it's right there for everyone to see, you can dial it up on hockeydb whenever you like.  You look at the player your team got, then agonize about the guy who was picked one or three spots later.  

We almost had a cottage industry spring up this season around the Louis Leblanc-Chris Kreider draft in 2009, with the latter's success in the playoffs, and the former's stalled development and eventual trade to the Ducks.

Heck, I've done it.  I questioned some of the picks the Habs made on Saturday, and I had a mini nervous breakdown during the 2013 draft, feeling that the mix of prospects that was acquired was much less than optimal, given the prospects already in the system.

Yet we've looked at the Canadiens' drafting record over the last decade or so, some number crunching that's been done comparing NHL teams' draft successes and failings, and the Canadiens come out looking pretty good.

One study done by Canucks bloggers lamented the chronic failures of their scouting team under Ron Delorme, and set up an experiment comparing their record to one whereby the team would have foregone all the expensive scouting and experts travelling the world.  Instead, an algorithm was set up by which the Canucks pick the highest-scoring CHL forward left on the draft board.  That's it.  Just goals and assists.  No compete level, no size, no coach opinions were considered, just the points tally.  And the algorithm wins, hands down.  Meanwhile, Trevor Timmins and his team come up smelling roses against that same method.

Now comes another study done by Allan Muir of Sports Illustrated.  He wondered which teams did the best job finding hidden treasures in the later rounds of the draft, so he looked at teams' picks after the second round from the 2005 draft onwards.  

He doesn't set a bar, a specific criterion by which he'll rank the teams 1 through 30.  Instead, he puts the results in a table format, looking at the number of players who played at least one game, at least 100, the total number of games played by these draftees, as well as the points they put up.  He also takes into account goalie success.

With these loose parameters, he doesn't crown a champ, but lists the Canucks as clearly the worst team, with the Oilers, Panthers, Jets and Flames rounding out the most inept.  At the other end of the scale, he finds that the Predators, the Blue Jackets and the Kings have had the most success.

We can debate these findings on many fronts.  It would be nice if he'd factored in the relative draft position these teams have had, how many actual picks they had, and this has been done in other more rigorous studies.  Another factor he doesn't account for is that a perennially strong team has a roster that's harder to crack, while weak sisters like the Jackets or Preds offer an easier path, a better opportunity for these late-round prospects.  Still, it's one more snapshot from another perspective on how teams do at the draft table.

And again in his study, the Canadiens come out at the top end.  It's actually debatable that they are the best team in terms of pure numbers, but Mr. Muir factored in All-Stars like Jamie Benn heavily in his analysis.

In any case, the actual numbers reported show that the Habs had seven late rounders play at least one game, and five play at least 100.  They've amassed 170 goals and 414 points.  Mr. Muir zeroes in on Brendan Gallagher, appropriately, as the best player to be selected from these 43 total picks.

All these numbers are in the top end of the list of teams.  So again, despite the brickbats thrown at Trevor Timmins, he and his team are doing their job.  They're producing, objectively.  The results are there.

So I'll leave Nikolas Koberstein and Daniel Audette alone for the next couple of years, give them a chance to prove Trevor Timmins and the Canadiens' brain trust right.  It'll be a challenge, I'll slip up once in while, but it's getting hard to bloviate past the evidence.

Russian Factor vs. Canadian Factor.

A tangential point on Éric Bélanger, who is now working at RDS as a talking head, but used to play in the NHL in Edmonton for a long time among other locales.

Last season, faced with the end of his career and no NHL offers coming in, he went to the KHL to keep playing pro hockey.  He only played seven games, then decided to retire, saying he didn't want to be away from his family, that hockey had become a weight rather than a pleasure, etc...

Now I'm not picking on the guy, I respect his decision, I'm just going to use his case as an example.

It bugged me at the time that not more attention was paid to this announcement.  When an Alex Radulov acts unpredictably, we tag all Russian hockey players as flakes and unreliable.  When Nikolai Zherdev says he's had it with Columbus and wants to go home, he's a malingerer and untrustworthy, he broke his contract, his word.

Yet we made no such judgments on Canadian hockey players when Eric Bélanger signed on the dotted line, took a KHL job from a good son of Mother Russia, only to welch, to renege on the deal, and leave his team high and dry at the start of the season.

Instead, we ascribed a positive spin to the story, of an old warrior laying down his shield, calling it a career, no longer satisfied with the rewards of professional hockey, eager to 'spend more time with his family'.

And I cottoned on to Éric Bélanger, but I know it's happened before, with players coming back complaining of the food, the rinks, the language, the airplanes, the coaches, ...

So yeah, we batted around the term 'Russian Factor' over the weekend, and I wonder if in Russia they talk of the 'Canadian Factor', to describe fat, unmotivated, undedicated mercenaries coming over from the NHL who turn their nose up at everything, won't play the system, take stupid penalties, whine about conditions in the KHL to newspapers back home, and then through an interpreter explain that they were "misquoted", then quit and fly home, leaving their team-supplied apartment a pig sty.

The Senators and Maple Leafs are racing to the bottom.

I know some Habs or even Leafs fans who dislike the Sens are gleeful about their woes, but I'm starting to really worry about the viability of this franchise.  I think the NHL is better, and the Canadiens have better rivalries with a healthy team in Ottawa.

I used to like the Sens a lot, the team of Alfredsson and Hossa and Havlat and Wade Redden, thought they were exciting and fun to watch.  I hated how the Leafs with Domi and Tucker and Belak would goon them out of the playoffs, with Don Cherry cheerleading, rooting for the Canadians over the "foreigners", shameful stuff.

Now I hated the Sens of the last couple of years with Scowlin' Chris Neil and Eric Graiba or Greeba or whatever that plug's name is, but I kind of understand that it's the Leaf's fault, Darcy Tucker's fault, and the Bruins' fault.  They forced the arms race on the Northeast, and the Senators responded after years of hoping their talent would overcome.

They messed up with Daniel Alfredsson, Bryan Murray wouldn't admit it today.  His last contract was supposed to be a two-year deal and it was possible he'd retire after, but the Sens prevailed upon him to tack on a cap-circumventing bogus third year at a $1M salary.  He had misgivings but went along, he had an eye on finishing his playing career and moving into the front office in Ottawa.  Sure enough, after the initial two years, he felt good enough to keep playing, didn't feel like retiring, but now he was stuck playing for a pittance, the bogus 1 mill year.

Last summer, when he decided he wanted to come back, he expected to be compensated for the previous year he'd played, plus get a realistic wage for the upcoming year, but then they hemmed and hawed and nickel and dimed him, and he said screw it and bolted, talked to Detroit and signed with them.  I understand that he's bitter about being a good soldier, being talked into a bad deal, and then having the team's cash-strapped owner not making it right.

When Bryan Murray and Eugene Melnyk say they talked and the owner told Bryan Murray to pay him whatever was necessary to retain him, it was already too late.  The captain felt he'd been given the runaround, there had been a breach of trust, and he'd checked out, in his mind he was already a Red Wing.  The Sens were trying to slam the barn door shut after the horse had bolted.

I don't know if that's the beginning of the end, but all that young talent that they had isn't making the difference that was envisioned two seasons ago.  Losing Ben Bishop for nothing smarts.  So does losing Jason Spezza to meager returns, and now the Bobby Ryan watch starts.

I can't rejoice in this, I want a successful team in Ottawa.  Their population base is small enough that they need a strong owner, not the harried shell-game artist they have now, and a winning team to fill their building.

Ideally, I want a good rivalry with Ottawa, and eventually with Québec, as well as with Boston and the Leafs, when they emerge from the crater they're going to create next season.

Darren Dreger of TSN just wrapped up the Leafs’ day, talked about:

1) the Leafs missing out on signing their own player Dave Bolland,

2) being rebuffed by Josh Gorges, who wouldn't waive his No Trade Clause despite a charm offensive from the Leafs, and

3) Brian Boyle leaving money on the table to go sign with Tampa instead.

Brendan Shanahan has a huge, huge job ahead of him to turn this franchise around. This season wasn’t a blip, 2012-13 was the blip.

They’re now dropping like an anchor. With Dion Phaneuf and Phil Kessel as their leaders to turn things around.

Mike Weaver instrumental in the Canadiens' signing of Tom Gilbert?

I wonder how much Mike Weaver might have played a role in getting Tom Gilbert to sign in Montréal, if they kept in contact during the latter's playoff chase, if they talked, if Mike told him how good things were in terms of the facilities and the atmosphere, and how awesome it was to play.

And/or, did this conversation happpen during the 5-day window?  Both their deals were announced essentially at the same time.  Was there some legal collusion, did they coordinate to come to Montréal together, with Canadiens management?

Like some posters said, the Josh Gorges debacle won't do us any favours, but overall, maybe the mood is shifting around the league on whether to play for the Canadiens or not.

EDIT: Based on this phone press-conference held with Tom Gilbert (and Manny Malhotra), the only contact he had with Mike Weaver was a text message after the deal was struck.  So there goes our theory.

That was the other side of the coin that I wondered about, whether the two righties were actually rivals, jockeying for a contract with the Habs against one another.

So yeah, you want speculation, I got speculation...

On James Reimer, Dave Nonis tries to spin Randy Carlyle's foot out of the Leafs' mouth, fails.

Dave Nonis dissembling on James Reimer and the comments from his coach Randy Carlyle during his free agency press conference:

"I don't see where this coach thing comes up with all the players.  I don't know what the coach did wrong with James Reimer, except for one time say 'I thought he was okay tonight'.  Most other cities that's not a big deal, but here it's huge..."

Bullspit.  Absolute crock.  That's not what Randy Carlyle said.

"I thought he was okay.  Just okay," was the exact quote, and it's a world apart from what Dave Nonis is saying.

When Randy Carlyle took the time to add that pointed "Just okay", he was sending a clear message to his goalie, in public, that he thought he'd played a very average game.  The extra phrase stressed the mediocrity of the performance.  It didn't underscore the adequacy of his showing that night, but rather the opposite.

Look Dave, it's all on tape, in 0's and 1's in the cloud, in the noosphere.  You can't snow us.  Your coach took a shot at his goalie, and everyone heard it.  Don't try to spin us.

The fact that you're lying about it, that you're telling us one thing when it's clearly the other, is what makes this a big deal, still.  If you took it on truthfully, head on, it would dissipate, rather than build.

Thoughts on free agency: Canadiens add Gilbert, Weaver, Malhotra.

Great, I get home, and my PVR somehow didn't record the first 30 minutes of the free agency coverage on TSN.  Remarkably unreliable piece of machinery, considering I invested $100.


--Manny Malhotra signed early by the Habs, will replace Ryan White, a more effective player, comes cheaply, but he's not able to bring toughness, and he's a leftie.

All our centremen are now leftie, with Daniel Brière and Whitey gone.

George Parros will definitely be replaced now, I would wager.

--Is it foreshadowing that Benoit Pouliot is only coming through intermittently on his phone interview with James Duthie? He’s there, but he fades away, then he’s back, then he cuts out again…

--Holy crap, Josh Gorges to Buffalo? I can’t believe we get anything back from the Sabres, this will be a salary dump right?

Turns out it's a 2nd round pick, from Buffalo that's like a high first-rounder.

Sabres get to cap floor, take on leadership and experience, leave Nikita Zadorov and Rasmus Ristolainen in the minors to work on their game instead of being rushed.

Gives us more room to act, with Dan Boyle for example.

Aggressive move by Marc Bergevin.  Fortune favours the bold.

--Tom Gilbert signed by the Habs, takes care of the right side of the blue line, departure of Mike Weaver.  It's an upgrade.

Were the Canadiens after Tom Gilbert at the deadline last season when they got Mike Weaver from the Panthers instead? 

Wanted a rightie, settled for the lesser-valued player, then scooped up the original guy they wanted as a UFA this summer?

--Who the heck is Jiri Sekac?

Apparently, we won the "Jiri Sekac sweepstakes..."

Listed as a 6'2", 185 lbs left winger, 11 G, 28 Pts in 48 games played.  22 years old.  Wonder how he'll like Hamilton?  Let's put him in touch with Magnus Nygren.

--Tom Gilbert AND Mike Weaver now, on a one-year deal? We’re set on the right side of the defence.

I guess Greg Pateryn and Magnus Nygren need to bring their ‘A’ game at camp, they’re not waltzing into a job. They’ll need to win the job outright, and then Marc Bergevin will make room for them, as he likes to explain is his philosophy.

--Mike Weaver signs for a cheap one year deal, found that the grass wasn’t greener?  Or the Canadiens told him initially they wanted to see about Dan Boyle, and when the Rangers signed him, then quickly made the deal?

Very tradeable acquisitions if need be, once injuries start hitting other teams around the league, they'd take Messrs. Gilbert or Weaver on reasonable, short deals.

--Canadiens Montréal ✔ @CanadiensMTL

Canadiens sign forward Jeremy Gregoire to a three-year contract.


Good news, another small step forward.  Great pick by Trevor Timmins.

--Ryan Miller signing in Vancouver means one fewer landing spots for our mega-goalie-tradepieces, Peter Budaj and Dustin Tokarski.

--Josh Gorges sounding resigned to his fate on the phone with James Duthie.  He admits that the idea of playing with Leafs against the Canadiens was too much for him to stomach, at least initially.

--And now Brian Gionta goes to the Sabres as well, they've raided our leadership corps.  For Gio, it's a move closer to home in Rochester, NY.  He gets a big 3 year, $4.25M per season contract, too rich for our blood.

--Jonas Hiller to the Flames.  There go the Dustin Tokarski for Curtis Glencross rumours...    

      
--Is Pierre McGuire tooting his own horn more after another aborted GM interview?  After the Habs interview process for which he wasn't ultimately successful, he was circumspect.  Now, he tosses that off lightly, about how if I'd been "working somewhere else, Jonas Hiller would have been..."

--Thomas Vanek for three years in Minnesota.  We never had a chance?  Did Gord Miller say he has a "fellatial home" in Minny?

--Matt Moulson from the Isles to Buffalo, then to Minnesota, back to Buffalo, in the space of one season.  Gets more term than Thomas Vanek.  

Tim Murray has a 20 million gap to the cap floor burning a hole in his pocket.  

It's hard to tank a season these days.

--Really happy with the moves by the Canadiens brain trust so far. Sensible moves, patching holes, upgrading the mix.

All reasonable, short-term deals. Glad we’re not in the Matty Niskanen market, with the five-year deal and huge money for a guy who had a good year playing with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

Surprised that they added two RD’s, but I guess they didn’t want to hand a job over to Greg Pateryn and Magnus Nygren sight unseen.

All I want now is a huge enforcer, a Steve MacIntyre type.

--Ah!  The Leafs waste 4 years, $12M on Leo Komarov.  These guys are in the running for Connor McDavid next June.

--It's official, the Tampa Bay Lightning will crater next season, since Pierre McGuire just touted them as the power team to watch.

Their contract for Anton Stralman, who was on waivers not too long ago, 5 years for $20M, will be their version of what the Josh Gorges deal was for us.  Glad we get both Messrs. Gilbert and Weaver for that same yearly amount, and shorter term.

--Great sequence of tweets out of Vancouver.  

Ryan Miller @RyanMiller3039 · 3h

I'm so happy to join the @VanCanucks. What a great day! They keep telling me it's always this sunny here.

Strombone @strombone1 · 2h

-----> @RyanMiller3039

Eddie Lack @eddielack · 3h

Hey @RyanMiller3039 I'm open for dinner:) #datenight

Ryan MillerVerified account‏@RyanMiller3039

“@eddielack: Hey @RyanMiller3039 I'm open for dinner:) #datenight” YES!!!!

--Marc Bergevin in his presser, says that they felt it was time to give more responsibility to their young leaders, which explains partly the departure of Brian Gionta and Josh Gorges.

Mentions the two young lefties on D (Jarred and Nathan) as a factor.

Says they're losing great people, it's a tough decision, not popular, but need to improve the team.

About Jiri Sekac, feels they took a chance on a young player with lots of talent who can play Top 9.  Scouted him extensively in Europe.

About P.A. Parenteau, responds that he’s not necessarily a replacement for Thomas Vanek, but more a player who can play Top 9. Mentions that he’s a right shot.

Says there's a specific role for Manny Malhotra on the team, a better fit (probably referring to Daniel Brière and Ryan White at centre on the fourth line).

Defends his decisions as not strictly salary-cap motivated, but also "hockey decisions", and mentions the faceoff percentage of Manny Malhotra, the righties on the blue line, the Top 9 forward.

Disappointed that the news on Josh leaked, guarantees it didn't come from his organization, hated the mess it created, repeated that Josh is a great person.

He hasn't closed the door on Francis Bouillon returning, reaffirms his respect for the person he is and the player.  Says he's still listening to a lot of offers.

About possibly having to respond to an offer sheet for P.K., he says he's not necessarily worried, but that the team is in good shape if that happens.

Says if he had an idea about the next captain, he wouldn't tell anyone, and it's too early for those decisions.  When asked if there will be a player vote or appointment by management, he says they'll keep that in-house.

He has set no internal deadline to sign P.K. Subban.

About Dustin Tokarski, he says they're aware of the waivers situation, they're taking it into account.

Repeats that young players will come to camp, and they'll make decisions based on that.

About Ryan White, thinks a change of scenery might help him, appreciates what he's done, but they made the decision to go with Manny Malhotra.  A telling line: "Sometimes a student needs a new teacher..."

--Just an example of the Two Solitudes, a lot of the analysts on RDS, and many who are commenting on social media, feel that the Canadiens didn't improve today.  I'm not sure what their expectations were, maybe they thought we had to replace Thomas Vanek and go from there.

My expectations didn't include Thomas Vanek, just the roster we had at the start of last season.  While we lost some leadership and experience, some scoring, with Brian Gionta, Josh Gorges and Daniel Brière leaving, I feel that the team is more balanced on the blue line, will be more effective without having to force Jarred Tinordi or Alexei Emelin on to the right side.  I'm not as pessimistic about P.A. Parenteau.  I think he can be an effective Top 6 winger, and he'll play up to the circumstances.

We still need to address the toughness we lost with George Parros (the incarnation at the start of the season, before Colton Orr's dirty takedown), Douglas Murray and Ryan White.  I suspect Marc Bergevin isn't in a hurry, he'll let the market settle down and go bargain-hunting.

We're not going to find a scoring winger easily, just like the Leafs may be in a bind trying to find their big #1 centre.  We'll have to go into next season with an imperfect team, but one that's much stronger than two or three years ago.

--Darren Dreger just let it slip that the rumoured player to come from Toronto in the Josh Gorges deal that fell through was in fact Cody Franson.

Big, young, right-handed defenceman, some offensive skill, he’d have checked a lot of boxes for us.  One consideration is that his qualifying offer was $2M, so he’d be seeking more. The money on his deal wouldn’t have been much lower than the veteran Gilbert’s deal.

Glad Marc Bergevin was able to get a comparable player in Tom Gilbert, for free as a UFA, and get an extra 2nd rounder from Buffalo. That’s pretty much an even-steven deal, and we don’t have to barf seeing Josh in that putrid blue sweater.