1) Hiring Stéphane Waite, a goaltending coach who has had good results in Chicago, to replace Pierre Groulx who might not have been having the success wished for with Carey Price, is a good move. It's not guaranteed to work out, but a logical response to the situation.
As far as Marc Bergevin being able to lure him to Montréal, we shouldn't give that short shrift. It appears that he is able to build fruitful relationships, and people who have worked with him in the past seem eager to work with him again. That's a plus, and a win for the team.
We could compare that to the prior administration, and its leadership shortcomings, but I won't dive in too deep and let you decide.
2) About the Daniel Brière reports, I'm getting cold chills. I was basking in schadenfreude seeing what the Tyler Bozak contract might do to the Leafs, but this brought me back to our plight.
It wouldn't be Tomas Kaberle-bad, Mr. Brière is still an effective player, but I see that as a very ill-advised patch job. He has a bit of a mercenary attitude, didn't want to sign here before but now will take a stopgap contract to hopefully return to the Philadelphia area soon, that's not what I want when we're adding people to our team.
Of course, that's my uninformed fan opinion, I'm not sitting with him discussing the situation, taking a measure of the man, as Marc Bergevin is. He's the best person to make that decision, obviously, and we'll eventually have to trust his judgment.
Thursday, 4 July 2013
Wednesday, 3 July 2013
Vincent Lecavalier, disappointingly, aims low
We can try to be dispassionate and logical about Vincent Lecavalier's decision to sign with the Philadelphia Flyers instead of his hometown team, but I understand the anger felt by some fans, and the scorn aimed in his direction. Sure, he got more money out of Philly, but really, his financial security is not in question. He could have been a legend in Montréal, whereas now he'll be kind of Pierre Turgeon, a good scorer who kind of bounced around the league and won't have a real legacy. I'm irked that he wasn't more daring, and that wearing the bleu-blanc-rouge in Montréal on a Saturday night didn't mean more to him than that.
I keep telling myself that Vincent was born in 1980, so he missed the Stanley Cups in the seventies, and probably doesn't remember the playoff wars with the Flyers in the 80's, so he doesn't have the same emotions I do with respect to either jerseys, but I'm still disappointed. It's not as if he chose the Bruins, but almost as bad. The Flyers are the worst offenders when it comes to goonery and anti-hockey, and he shouldn't legitimize them by agreeing to their terms.
Sure, $22.5M over five years is a lot of cake, but he should have seized the opportunity, wrangled a bit more from Marc Bergevin if the $3M for 3 years offer was just too low, come to an agreement.
He should have manned up and worn the 44 with an A on his chest, and later possibly a C. Instead, he went to the town that booed Santa Claus and that really goes for hockey when the Eagles are out of it and the Sixers are struggling. Clearly, he messed up.
I keep telling myself that Vincent was born in 1980, so he missed the Stanley Cups in the seventies, and probably doesn't remember the playoff wars with the Flyers in the 80's, so he doesn't have the same emotions I do with respect to either jerseys, but I'm still disappointed. It's not as if he chose the Bruins, but almost as bad. The Flyers are the worst offenders when it comes to goonery and anti-hockey, and he shouldn't legitimize them by agreeing to their terms.
Sure, $22.5M over five years is a lot of cake, but he should have seized the opportunity, wrangled a bit more from Marc Bergevin if the $3M for 3 years offer was just too low, come to an agreement.
He should have manned up and worn the 44 with an A on his chest, and later possibly a C. Instead, he went to the town that booed Santa Claus and that really goes for hockey when the Eagles are out of it and the Sixers are struggling. Clearly, he messed up.
Mac Bennett at the Canadiens' Prospect Development Camp
Mac Bennett's account of his first day at the Development Camp. He caught up with former Michigan teammate Greg Pateryn, went through a really thorough medical checkup, and he raves about the facilities and the treatment he received.
Stuff like this is important when chasing after free agents. Sure, some fans think playing in Montréal is impossible because of the pressure, but some players can see the advantages.
UPDATED:
Here is Mac's last blog entry, which has links at the bottom for his entry after every day. Nice information on how the camp is run, what the prospects are run through and what the organization does for them to help them along their development curve.
Mac Bennett is the perfect example of what patience and having a development program can do for a prospect. Drafted in the third round and 79th overall in 2009, he had less than optimal size for a defenceman hoping for a career in the NHL at 5'11" and 180 lbs, but also had good offensive skills, hockey sense and great mobility.
From there, his development plan appears to be paying off. He has played at a great hockey program at Michigan under coach Red Berenson, progressing from a rookie season when he was relatively sheltered and used on the powerplay, to a sophomore season when he was on the first pairing with fellow Canadiens-prospect Greg Pateryn, to last season when he had to assume more of the load with Mr. Pateryn graduated. Next season, he'll return for his senior year and serve as the team captain.
The mention in his first entry that Development Coach Patrice Brisebois had given him a goal of 195 lbs for his target weight for the development camp, and that he'd reached that target, is good news. The Canadiens' staff and their support of the prospects seems to be paying off, from the very little news that we get. Based on the SportsNet "Road to the Memorial Cup" documentary, where we observed Mr. Brisebois working with Darren Dietz and Dalton Thrower, and now this mention from Mac Bennett, the hire of the Canadiens Player Development coaches have good rapport and a positive influence on the recruits.
Also, Mac Bennett is taking the necessary steps and climbing the ladder, with a positive attitude. His eagerness to please his coaches and to improve is a good sign. His physical development, from a relatively slender defenceman to one who is physically mature and noticeably more powerful in the upper body shows that he's applying himself to this aspect of his progression, and that there are benefits to some to taking the NCAA as opposed to the junior route to the NHL.
Stuff like this is important when chasing after free agents. Sure, some fans think playing in Montréal is impossible because of the pressure, but some players can see the advantages.
UPDATED:
Here is Mac's last blog entry, which has links at the bottom for his entry after every day. Nice information on how the camp is run, what the prospects are run through and what the organization does for them to help them along their development curve.
Mac Bennett is the perfect example of what patience and having a development program can do for a prospect. Drafted in the third round and 79th overall in 2009, he had less than optimal size for a defenceman hoping for a career in the NHL at 5'11" and 180 lbs, but also had good offensive skills, hockey sense and great mobility.
From there, his development plan appears to be paying off. He has played at a great hockey program at Michigan under coach Red Berenson, progressing from a rookie season when he was relatively sheltered and used on the powerplay, to a sophomore season when he was on the first pairing with fellow Canadiens-prospect Greg Pateryn, to last season when he had to assume more of the load with Mr. Pateryn graduated. Next season, he'll return for his senior year and serve as the team captain.
The mention in his first entry that Development Coach Patrice Brisebois had given him a goal of 195 lbs for his target weight for the development camp, and that he'd reached that target, is good news. The Canadiens' staff and their support of the prospects seems to be paying off, from the very little news that we get. Based on the SportsNet "Road to the Memorial Cup" documentary, where we observed Mr. Brisebois working with Darren Dietz and Dalton Thrower, and now this mention from Mac Bennett, the hire of the Canadiens Player Development coaches have good rapport and a positive influence on the recruits.
Also, Mac Bennett is taking the necessary steps and climbing the ladder, with a positive attitude. His eagerness to please his coaches and to improve is a good sign. His physical development, from a relatively slender defenceman to one who is physically mature and noticeably more powerful in the upper body shows that he's applying himself to this aspect of his progression, and that there are benefits to some to taking the NCAA as opposed to the junior route to the NHL.
A critique of the Canadiens' 2013 draft
So after a few days to recuperate and ponder, I want to revisit the Canadiens' draft and re-state my position that, in my uninformed 'fan who read lots of blogs and mock drafts' opinion, an opportunity was lost to even out the prospect mix and team makeup, and precious resources were squandered.
I base this opinion on the fact that the NHL is ever more turning into a SmashUp Derby game, a contest of attrition, where a player's ability to 'finish his checks' and endure crosschecks and facewashes in front of the net after the whistle has blown trumps his puck skills. While I bemoaned this for years, I've surrendered, and acknowledge that if the Canadiens want to be competitive, they need to add some size and toughness to their lineup.
The Canadiens tried to fight the good fight, and promote a fan-friendly style that hearkened back to the Flying Frenchmen days. Bob Gainey memorably in 2009 tried to overhaul the roster and acquired small but speedy forwards Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta and Mike Cammalleri, in an attempt to overwhelm the League with quickness. While there were some successes, other teams took advantage of our smaller players with attempts to intimidate and outright assaults, like, for example, when big friggin' hero Greg Campbell picked his spot and attacked Tom Pyatt, unprovoked, and beat his face to a pulp with the aid of an elbow pad. Greg's daddy, the abysmal Colin Campbell, ruled it a hockey play.
Ultimately, Gainey's 'Virage Vitesse' was unsuccessful for a few reasons. It became apparent that, especially during the playoffs, the referees are loathe to call interference penalties, and any quickness advantage the Canadiens had was nullified by the slashing and crosschecking they endured at the hands of their bigger, stronger opponents. While the Canadiens had heart and could be successful, they had to have stellar goaltending and a lethal powerplay to win, and it's hard to rely on these factors.
While Marc Bergevin attempted last summer to add size, character and toughness by signing unrestricted free agents Brandon Prust, Colby Armstrong and Francis Bouillon, players who would play a grittier style but still be able to play the Canadiens way, it was shown to not be enough in the playoffs, when the massive Senators defencemen took untold liberties on the smaller Canadiens forwards. Chris Neil made a practice during scrums in front of the net after the whistle, of grabbing Brendan Gallagher's head and trying to tuck it under his arm like it was a rugby ball. It took five or so incidents for the refs to finally call it as the penalty it was, to Mr. Neil's scowly astonishment (granted, it doesn't take much to confuse him).
So we're reduced to joining the arms race, and transforming our roster with a healthy injection of truculence, belligerence, ill-temper, bellicosity, hostility, pugnacity, testosterone, and whatever else Brian Burke wants to call it. This isn't entirely a new practice for the Canadiens. In the past, while the team was populated with talented players, there was a brace of big, physical players who could cool the ardour of opposition tough guys, such as Pierre Bouchard, Gilles Lupien, Rick Chartraw, Kent Carlson, Chris Nilan, John Kordic. There were physical defencemen who cleared the crease and played as tough as anyone, like Larry Robinson, Rod Langway, Craig Ludwig, Donald Dufresne, Lyle Odelein. There were talented d-men who could hit and fight when needed, who didn't shrink when the going got tough, players like Serge Savard, Bill Nyrop, Guy Lapointe, Chris Chelios, Sylvain Lefebvre, Éric Desjardins. There were physical forwards in the same mold, guys who could play hockey and score goals, but also accommodate the opposition if they wanted to drag the game in the gutter, guys like Yvon Lambert, Mario Tremblay, Doug Risebrough, Bob Gainey, Claude Lemieux, Mike Keane, Brian Skrudland, Dave Maley, Mike McPhee. The Canadiens could play it any way the opposition wanted, and couldn't be intimidated, much as the Flyers and the Bruins tried.
So that's the tack that I hoped the Canadiens would adopt, to have a few bigger guys in the lineup to surround the slighter, more skilled guys, like the Bruins do with Sean Thornton, Milan Lucic and Zdeno Chara, among others, or the Blackhawks do with Brent Seabrook, Brian Bickell among other towers and tough guys to protect Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith.
Looking at our roster in Hamilton, we see a forward lineup of average or undersized players, with skill and speed and character, but who won't help the Canadiens measure up to the Kings and Blues or Bruins. There's no immediate help on the farm in that department. While we have lots of two-way skaters, and some scorers in the pipeline, we're seriously deficient in any players with impressive size beyond Jarred Tinordi and Steve Quailer. Our defencemen prospects like Nathan Beaulieu, Darren Dietz and Dalton Thrower, while they play a physical style, are going to be comparatively undersized, as the NHL's Mendoza Line for defencemen is trending towards 6'2", as described in this post in which I explored the need for the Canadiens to get bigger.
Of course, our timing couldn't have been better with this year's draft, as it had a lot of local players with impressive size and skill, and lots of bigger forwards who could be developed in the first two rounds. All we needed to do was focus on players with that size and physical style, pick up six or seven such players, and then develop the hell out of them, and hope that two or (fingers crossed) three of them pan out.
Instead, I was crestfallen to see the Canadiens go again with a 'best player available' philosophy that is no longer applicable to today's NHL. While we're still looking for the most skilled player, the guy with the best skating and puck skills, the modern definition of 'best player available' should include the likeliness that the player can survive the goonery and slashitude of the AHL and NHL. I fear we're using an antiquated drafting philosophy, while the rest of the league, from the Board of Governors to the Hockey Operations Department to the Competition Committee to the referees have moved on to the modern survival-of-the-fittest hockey-is-war definition.
So with that context, and that proviso that I went in with expectations that were going to be dashed, here is my critique of the Canadiens 2013 draft, using some of the comments (in italics) I posted during the draft, as I tried to do my version of a 'Liveblog'.
- Pick #25: The Canadiens pick Michael McCarron, a 6'5" winger out of the U.S. National Team Development Program. He was ranked as an early second-rounder. Big size, aggressiveness, skill is a bit in question.
Sure, he'll bring size and toughness, but we kind of scoffed at Tom Wilson and Tyler Biggs the last two drafts, so I'm not sure why this guy is any better.
In Trevor Timmins I trust. Ommmmmmm...
- The fact that the Canadiens had a jersey with Michael McCarron's name on it is an indication that they chose a guy who they wanted, and not just as a reaction to all their guys being snapped up. So there's that.
I'd advocated the previous week that the Canadiens should trade down if any of the three next level LHJMQ picks after Nathan McKinnon and Jonathan Drouin, namely Anthony Mantha, Frédérik Gauthier and Samuel Morin, were unavailable once we got to #25. This would allow us to pick up another 2nd rounder plus another asset and dive into the pool of big forwards, most from the USNTDP, who were to be found there. I also had designs on Jonathan Ismaël Diaby, a towering project of a defenceman, already an imposing physical specimen at 18 years old. I felt an extra second rounder plus a later pick would allow the Canadiens to 'reach' for Mr. Diaby.
Instead, the Canadiens decided to play it safe, keep the pick and grab the guy they wanted, if the lettered jersey is any indication. I felt this was a safe pick, in that they probably feared he would be gone if they waited until #34. So they decided to not get cute and keep the bird in hand. Some fans and analysts harp on the fact that he has questionable talent, but let's be realistic, if he had the puck skills of an Eric Lindros, or even a Keith Primeau, at his size, he would have been gone by pick #5, so we should be content with him at #25. All that remains is for Martin Lapointe to figure out the best way for him to develop, either at Western Michigan in the NCAA or with the London Knights in the OHL.
- Pick #34: We get Jacob De la Rose, a guy who got lots of hype, good size. Swedes I find tend to be undervalued compared to CHL players, so I'm happy with this pick.
Another pick I was happy with, in that the writeups on Jacob De la Rose were impressive, and seemed to indicate a player with good skating, good size, some scoring talent, an inclination to deliver bodychecks and great hockey sense. He seems to be a safe bet to be a second or third-liner, and if he can be an Yvon Lambert-type of player, a guy who plays hard in both ends of the ice, brings toughness and pots timely goals, we're ecstatic.
- Pick #36: The Canadiens draft Zachary Fucale. Not necessarily happy with this pick, but I have to trust their judgment on this one. I would have preferred another sizeable forward or defenceman. Taking the best goalie in this class this low is a steal I guess.
With these comments I tipped my hand and showed how much I wanted a bigger, talented forward picked here, again to inject some size in the prospect mix, and right the current imbalance. I was hoping that Trevor Timmins would snag a scoring winger like Valentin Zykov or William Carrier. With time, I've grown to like this pick very much, the reports on Mr. Fucale are very encouraging, in terms of the talent he has, his attitude and character, and the fact that he has been the starting goaltender on a championship team for two seasons now. This is quite a lot of experience and work for a seventeen-year-old.
The Canadiens have needed a frontline goaltending prospect for a couple of years now, and Zach Fucale fills that bill, at an unexpected low price. It's a pleasant surprise to get the highest-ranked goalie this far down the draft, and he could turn out to be a major piece of the team in the future, and the best pick in this draft.
And it now takes us to the first of many disappointments:
- Pick #55: A puzzling pick, the Canadians grab Arturri Lehkonen. Not happy. He plays the role already filled by Sebastian Collberg and Charles Hudon.
My comments at the time say it all. I felt he was the proverbial ice machine to the Inuit, more of what we already had. Since then, I've had the opportunity to acquaint myself with this prospect more, and while some aspects are enticing, such as his play against grown men in the Finnish league, and his obvious skill with the puck, others are worrisome, like his frail build, and his concussions sustained last season.
Meanwhile:
- And William Carrier, a bigger homeboy, is snapped up the very next pick by St. Louis. As a very uninformed fan, I'm disappointed we didn't take him instead of the Finnish pipsqueak we got.
- Actually, Marc-Olivier Roy went to Edmonton before the Blues picked Mr. Carrier. My point remains.
...and, I kept raving...
- Talent is being proven to be unimportant, a marginal consideration by the current state of the NHL with its laissez-faire refereeing. Talent is wiped out by size. Mr. Lehkonen will have to work hard to prove me wrong, but in this day and age, I think it's a wasted pick.
So I'm going to stand by my original objection. Mr. Lehkonen could well turn out to be an inspired pick, and be a star, but so could any one of the bigger forwards available at this point, the two local boys previously listed, or buzzsaw Nicholas Baptiste of the OHL, or 6'3" LW Zachary Sanford, to name a few. I admit I never saw any of these players in question actually play, but if we had to pick out of a cluster of prospects who grade relatively equally, we should have taken the players whose skillset we lacked, as opposed to the ones who are clones of those we already have.
Some will reflexively bark "Best player available!" as a justification for this pick, but I will counter that the Canadiens weren't taking the BPA, they drafted nothing but forwards except for one goalie. So obviously they wanted to right the prospect imbalance in Hamilton, which is going to be knee-deep in D-men this fall, and applied themselves to that. I contend they should have applied themselves to improving the size makeup on the farm as well.
And despite the stated plethora of defencemen in the system, so much so that we can allow Yannick Weber to walk away as a UFA instead of locking him up with a qualifying offer, we should have targeted Jonathan Ismaël Diaby. You don't let a 6'5" 250 lbs homeboy defenceman with a mean streak slip through your fingers, when your system is woefully thin on such players. You don't blink or overthink or wait and see if he'll fall down the draft into your lap, you grab that guy, instead of the small longshot from overseas. Mr. Diaby could have been the tough crease-clearing #5 or 6 d-man of the future, who brought some snarl to the back end and imposed some respect for Carey Price, who is too often treated as a beanbag chair the way opponents collapse on him.
Not drafting Jonathan Ismaël Diaby was a tremendous waste of an opportunity, who would have ticked off many needs off our list. With the proper development, he could at worst have played the role Gilles Lupien used to fill, the #6 defenceman-enforcer who can take care of his own end and play a regular shift. His ceiling is probably higher than that minimum expectation though. Judging from the scouting reports and his progression this season, it's likely that he's done growing and is now getting his coordination back after the growth spurt, and that his skills will catch up with his size, and he'll keep improving beyond just being a big tough player.
- Pick #71: To help us forget about Erik Cole, with the third-rounder we got from them, we pick up Connor Crisp, an overage Junior with massive size but little talent to speak of.
We've got this weird pendulum swinging back and forth, with size but no skill at one end, and skill in a very small package at the other. McCarron, to Lehkonen, to Crisp.
It's hard to argue with this pick, while I'm trying to argue that we should have targeted size at this draft. The kid is big and will play physical. He's a long shot to make the Canadiens, but let's plug him in the system and coach him up and see what happens.
But then...
- Pick #86: Sven Andrighetto, an overaged 5'9" forward at #86. I'm going to barf.
This was supposed to be an opportunity to correct the size imbalance in our system, with an injection of bigger players to surround those smaller, less physical prospects already on the farm. We're failing miserably at that.
Mason Geertsen is still on the board, and we let him go for this guy.
This isn't fun any more.
Again, a puzzling pick, a small player who will be disadvantaged in the NHL as it is currently being run. Further, it's overkill to take another risk on this type of player, when we did so in the last round.
Now, I'm familiar with Sven Andrighetto, a Québec-based blogger swears by him and sang his praises all season, but it's still a huge gamble. The kid may be 'big for his size' and have all the skill in the world, but he's been passed over two years in a row in the draft. For all the stockiness he has, so does Brendan Gallagher, and he was mauled by the Senators during the playoffs.
There were arguments that he was chosen precisely because of his age and status as an overager, so that he will be able to go to Hamilton this very fall, and chip in some offence, but again, he's another young, smaller kid joining a team full of them. Not a good mix.
Philosophically, this was a bad pick, a bad bet on the wrong horse. We've already put down a bet on a longshot at #54. There were better options. such as Hudson Fasching or Anton Slepyshev, big talented forwards who can score and who fell in the draft, and again would have been a better complement to our prospects.
My personal favourite, big, tough, nasty Mason Geertsen of the Vancouver Giants, a player who is not loaded with talent but has lots of heart and plays really hard, was still available, and again would have improved our size profile on the blue line. If one of him or Mr. Diaby panned out, we'd have a good complementary piece. If both did, we'd be laughing.
A safer pick might also have been Jackson Houck, also of the Giants, and he could have been the Doug Risebrough-type of player, with decent size at 6', 190 lbs and a lot of snarl to his game, and leadership skills. While Louis Leblanc reportedly balks at being groomed as a third-line checker, this kid would embrace the role and give it all he has.
But...
Mason Geertsen goes top of the fourth, 93rd overall to the Avalanche. His Vancouver Giants teammate Jackson Houck goes next to the Oilers. Right around where I thought Mr. Geertsen would go, we should have grabbed him with our second third-round pick. Mr. Houck I'm not so high on, think he's the second coming of Mike Hough, but some analysts thought he might go in the second round, which was insane. Fourth round is appropriate for him also.
I was starting to lose it:
- It's much too early to pronounce on this draft, but I'm waffling between a debacle or a fiasco.
Sure, some hyperbole, a little levity to lighten up the proceedings, except...
- Pick #116: And I pronounced it as such before I found out we'd drafted Martin Reway, a 5'9" forward who scored 22 goals in the LHJMQ this year.
Debacle? Fiasco? So hard to make the call.
En français, on dirait 'une débandade.'
- Let me restate that the only reason these mini-players are available is because every other team understands that, as skilled as they are, the refs and Jeremy Jacobs won't let them be successful.
What more is there to say here? Trevor Timmins, when asked about this pick, explained that it was a "homerun swing", and I understand what he means. Huge talent, low chance of making it, but if he does he could pay off big. But wasn't the Lehkonen or Andrighetto pick the homerun swing? How many of these does one take? How about moving the runners, just making contact?
Again, Hudson Fasching was still available at this point, and so was Mitchell Wheaton, a 6'4" prospect from the defenceman factory that is the Kelowna Rockets. There were other options than another undersized offensive forward. By now the decision-making is baffling.
- Pick 176: The Canadiens take Jérémy Grégoire in the sixth round. Again, I've seen some good writeups on this kid but haven't seen him play. Funny that nhl.com lists him as either 5'11" or 6', depending which page of their website you look at.
Happy to take a local boy here, might as well.
No arguments with this pick. It's actually a relief. Local boy? Check. Good size? Check. Plays gritty, will complement the skilled forwards we have on the books? Check.
Even so, I felt deflated.
The fact that the Canadiens gave up their seventh-rounder in exchange for Florida's 2014's 7th is merciful. I'm not sure I could have taken any more.
The fact that the Canadiens made this trade was mildly puzzling, as customarily the price for a pick today is a pick one round higher the next year. In this case though, Trevor Timmins indicated that they had no one on their list, or anyone left that any scout was advocating for, so the pick didn't have much value. The disparity might stem from the fact that it was probably the Canadiens flogging it, instead of a team running around looking for a pick.
The Canadiens staff must have thought that next year, they might be in a different situation. While a seventh may not sound like much, at last year's draft we didn't have one, and giant Victoriaville goalie Brandon Whitney was still on the board deep into the seventh. Had we kept our seventh we could have snapped him up before he fell any further, and bolstered our organizational depth that way. The odds are, in any case, that the Florida pick will be closer to the top of the round, as opposed to the bottom as this year's pick was, so that may in itself be a benefit.
So what did we learn at this year's draft? Probably that we shouldn't go in with any expectations, and that we should let the pros handle the delicate work. But it's no fun that way.
I'll be sure to harrumph my disapproval many times in the near future, with liberal use of 'I told you so's when appropriate, but glossing over instances where I was misguided, instead pointing to the many preambles and caveats sprinkled in here to cover my flanks.
I base this opinion on the fact that the NHL is ever more turning into a SmashUp Derby game, a contest of attrition, where a player's ability to 'finish his checks' and endure crosschecks and facewashes in front of the net after the whistle has blown trumps his puck skills. While I bemoaned this for years, I've surrendered, and acknowledge that if the Canadiens want to be competitive, they need to add some size and toughness to their lineup.
The Canadiens tried to fight the good fight, and promote a fan-friendly style that hearkened back to the Flying Frenchmen days. Bob Gainey memorably in 2009 tried to overhaul the roster and acquired small but speedy forwards Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta and Mike Cammalleri, in an attempt to overwhelm the League with quickness. While there were some successes, other teams took advantage of our smaller players with attempts to intimidate and outright assaults, like, for example, when big friggin' hero Greg Campbell picked his spot and attacked Tom Pyatt, unprovoked, and beat his face to a pulp with the aid of an elbow pad. Greg's daddy, the abysmal Colin Campbell, ruled it a hockey play.
Ultimately, Gainey's 'Virage Vitesse' was unsuccessful for a few reasons. It became apparent that, especially during the playoffs, the referees are loathe to call interference penalties, and any quickness advantage the Canadiens had was nullified by the slashing and crosschecking they endured at the hands of their bigger, stronger opponents. While the Canadiens had heart and could be successful, they had to have stellar goaltending and a lethal powerplay to win, and it's hard to rely on these factors.
While Marc Bergevin attempted last summer to add size, character and toughness by signing unrestricted free agents Brandon Prust, Colby Armstrong and Francis Bouillon, players who would play a grittier style but still be able to play the Canadiens way, it was shown to not be enough in the playoffs, when the massive Senators defencemen took untold liberties on the smaller Canadiens forwards. Chris Neil made a practice during scrums in front of the net after the whistle, of grabbing Brendan Gallagher's head and trying to tuck it under his arm like it was a rugby ball. It took five or so incidents for the refs to finally call it as the penalty it was, to Mr. Neil's scowly astonishment (granted, it doesn't take much to confuse him).
So we're reduced to joining the arms race, and transforming our roster with a healthy injection of truculence, belligerence, ill-temper, bellicosity, hostility, pugnacity, testosterone, and whatever else Brian Burke wants to call it. This isn't entirely a new practice for the Canadiens. In the past, while the team was populated with talented players, there was a brace of big, physical players who could cool the ardour of opposition tough guys, such as Pierre Bouchard, Gilles Lupien, Rick Chartraw, Kent Carlson, Chris Nilan, John Kordic. There were physical defencemen who cleared the crease and played as tough as anyone, like Larry Robinson, Rod Langway, Craig Ludwig, Donald Dufresne, Lyle Odelein. There were talented d-men who could hit and fight when needed, who didn't shrink when the going got tough, players like Serge Savard, Bill Nyrop, Guy Lapointe, Chris Chelios, Sylvain Lefebvre, Éric Desjardins. There were physical forwards in the same mold, guys who could play hockey and score goals, but also accommodate the opposition if they wanted to drag the game in the gutter, guys like Yvon Lambert, Mario Tremblay, Doug Risebrough, Bob Gainey, Claude Lemieux, Mike Keane, Brian Skrudland, Dave Maley, Mike McPhee. The Canadiens could play it any way the opposition wanted, and couldn't be intimidated, much as the Flyers and the Bruins tried.
So that's the tack that I hoped the Canadiens would adopt, to have a few bigger guys in the lineup to surround the slighter, more skilled guys, like the Bruins do with Sean Thornton, Milan Lucic and Zdeno Chara, among others, or the Blackhawks do with Brent Seabrook, Brian Bickell among other towers and tough guys to protect Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith.
Looking at our roster in Hamilton, we see a forward lineup of average or undersized players, with skill and speed and character, but who won't help the Canadiens measure up to the Kings and Blues or Bruins. There's no immediate help on the farm in that department. While we have lots of two-way skaters, and some scorers in the pipeline, we're seriously deficient in any players with impressive size beyond Jarred Tinordi and Steve Quailer. Our defencemen prospects like Nathan Beaulieu, Darren Dietz and Dalton Thrower, while they play a physical style, are going to be comparatively undersized, as the NHL's Mendoza Line for defencemen is trending towards 6'2", as described in this post in which I explored the need for the Canadiens to get bigger.
Of course, our timing couldn't have been better with this year's draft, as it had a lot of local players with impressive size and skill, and lots of bigger forwards who could be developed in the first two rounds. All we needed to do was focus on players with that size and physical style, pick up six or seven such players, and then develop the hell out of them, and hope that two or (fingers crossed) three of them pan out.
Instead, I was crestfallen to see the Canadiens go again with a 'best player available' philosophy that is no longer applicable to today's NHL. While we're still looking for the most skilled player, the guy with the best skating and puck skills, the modern definition of 'best player available' should include the likeliness that the player can survive the goonery and slashitude of the AHL and NHL. I fear we're using an antiquated drafting philosophy, while the rest of the league, from the Board of Governors to the Hockey Operations Department to the Competition Committee to the referees have moved on to the modern survival-of-the-fittest hockey-is-war definition.
So with that context, and that proviso that I went in with expectations that were going to be dashed, here is my critique of the Canadiens 2013 draft, using some of the comments (in italics) I posted during the draft, as I tried to do my version of a 'Liveblog'.
- Pick #25: The Canadiens pick Michael McCarron, a 6'5" winger out of the U.S. National Team Development Program. He was ranked as an early second-rounder. Big size, aggressiveness, skill is a bit in question.
Sure, he'll bring size and toughness, but we kind of scoffed at Tom Wilson and Tyler Biggs the last two drafts, so I'm not sure why this guy is any better.
In Trevor Timmins I trust. Ommmmmmm...
- The fact that the Canadiens had a jersey with Michael McCarron's name on it is an indication that they chose a guy who they wanted, and not just as a reaction to all their guys being snapped up. So there's that.
I'd advocated the previous week that the Canadiens should trade down if any of the three next level LHJMQ picks after Nathan McKinnon and Jonathan Drouin, namely Anthony Mantha, Frédérik Gauthier and Samuel Morin, were unavailable once we got to #25. This would allow us to pick up another 2nd rounder plus another asset and dive into the pool of big forwards, most from the USNTDP, who were to be found there. I also had designs on Jonathan Ismaël Diaby, a towering project of a defenceman, already an imposing physical specimen at 18 years old. I felt an extra second rounder plus a later pick would allow the Canadiens to 'reach' for Mr. Diaby.
Instead, the Canadiens decided to play it safe, keep the pick and grab the guy they wanted, if the lettered jersey is any indication. I felt this was a safe pick, in that they probably feared he would be gone if they waited until #34. So they decided to not get cute and keep the bird in hand. Some fans and analysts harp on the fact that he has questionable talent, but let's be realistic, if he had the puck skills of an Eric Lindros, or even a Keith Primeau, at his size, he would have been gone by pick #5, so we should be content with him at #25. All that remains is for Martin Lapointe to figure out the best way for him to develop, either at Western Michigan in the NCAA or with the London Knights in the OHL.
- Pick #34: We get Jacob De la Rose, a guy who got lots of hype, good size. Swedes I find tend to be undervalued compared to CHL players, so I'm happy with this pick.
Another pick I was happy with, in that the writeups on Jacob De la Rose were impressive, and seemed to indicate a player with good skating, good size, some scoring talent, an inclination to deliver bodychecks and great hockey sense. He seems to be a safe bet to be a second or third-liner, and if he can be an Yvon Lambert-type of player, a guy who plays hard in both ends of the ice, brings toughness and pots timely goals, we're ecstatic.
- Pick #36: The Canadiens draft Zachary Fucale. Not necessarily happy with this pick, but I have to trust their judgment on this one. I would have preferred another sizeable forward or defenceman. Taking the best goalie in this class this low is a steal I guess.
With these comments I tipped my hand and showed how much I wanted a bigger, talented forward picked here, again to inject some size in the prospect mix, and right the current imbalance. I was hoping that Trevor Timmins would snag a scoring winger like Valentin Zykov or William Carrier. With time, I've grown to like this pick very much, the reports on Mr. Fucale are very encouraging, in terms of the talent he has, his attitude and character, and the fact that he has been the starting goaltender on a championship team for two seasons now. This is quite a lot of experience and work for a seventeen-year-old.
The Canadiens have needed a frontline goaltending prospect for a couple of years now, and Zach Fucale fills that bill, at an unexpected low price. It's a pleasant surprise to get the highest-ranked goalie this far down the draft, and he could turn out to be a major piece of the team in the future, and the best pick in this draft.
And it now takes us to the first of many disappointments:
- Pick #55: A puzzling pick, the Canadians grab Arturri Lehkonen. Not happy. He plays the role already filled by Sebastian Collberg and Charles Hudon.
My comments at the time say it all. I felt he was the proverbial ice machine to the Inuit, more of what we already had. Since then, I've had the opportunity to acquaint myself with this prospect more, and while some aspects are enticing, such as his play against grown men in the Finnish league, and his obvious skill with the puck, others are worrisome, like his frail build, and his concussions sustained last season.
Meanwhile:
- And William Carrier, a bigger homeboy, is snapped up the very next pick by St. Louis. As a very uninformed fan, I'm disappointed we didn't take him instead of the Finnish pipsqueak we got.
- Actually, Marc-Olivier Roy went to Edmonton before the Blues picked Mr. Carrier. My point remains.
...and, I kept raving...
- Talent is being proven to be unimportant, a marginal consideration by the current state of the NHL with its laissez-faire refereeing. Talent is wiped out by size. Mr. Lehkonen will have to work hard to prove me wrong, but in this day and age, I think it's a wasted pick.
So I'm going to stand by my original objection. Mr. Lehkonen could well turn out to be an inspired pick, and be a star, but so could any one of the bigger forwards available at this point, the two local boys previously listed, or buzzsaw Nicholas Baptiste of the OHL, or 6'3" LW Zachary Sanford, to name a few. I admit I never saw any of these players in question actually play, but if we had to pick out of a cluster of prospects who grade relatively equally, we should have taken the players whose skillset we lacked, as opposed to the ones who are clones of those we already have.
Some will reflexively bark "Best player available!" as a justification for this pick, but I will counter that the Canadiens weren't taking the BPA, they drafted nothing but forwards except for one goalie. So obviously they wanted to right the prospect imbalance in Hamilton, which is going to be knee-deep in D-men this fall, and applied themselves to that. I contend they should have applied themselves to improving the size makeup on the farm as well.
And despite the stated plethora of defencemen in the system, so much so that we can allow Yannick Weber to walk away as a UFA instead of locking him up with a qualifying offer, we should have targeted Jonathan Ismaël Diaby. You don't let a 6'5" 250 lbs homeboy defenceman with a mean streak slip through your fingers, when your system is woefully thin on such players. You don't blink or overthink or wait and see if he'll fall down the draft into your lap, you grab that guy, instead of the small longshot from overseas. Mr. Diaby could have been the tough crease-clearing #5 or 6 d-man of the future, who brought some snarl to the back end and imposed some respect for Carey Price, who is too often treated as a beanbag chair the way opponents collapse on him.
Not drafting Jonathan Ismaël Diaby was a tremendous waste of an opportunity, who would have ticked off many needs off our list. With the proper development, he could at worst have played the role Gilles Lupien used to fill, the #6 defenceman-enforcer who can take care of his own end and play a regular shift. His ceiling is probably higher than that minimum expectation though. Judging from the scouting reports and his progression this season, it's likely that he's done growing and is now getting his coordination back after the growth spurt, and that his skills will catch up with his size, and he'll keep improving beyond just being a big tough player.
- Pick #71: To help us forget about Erik Cole, with the third-rounder we got from them, we pick up Connor Crisp, an overage Junior with massive size but little talent to speak of.
We've got this weird pendulum swinging back and forth, with size but no skill at one end, and skill in a very small package at the other. McCarron, to Lehkonen, to Crisp.
It's hard to argue with this pick, while I'm trying to argue that we should have targeted size at this draft. The kid is big and will play physical. He's a long shot to make the Canadiens, but let's plug him in the system and coach him up and see what happens.
But then...
- Pick #86: Sven Andrighetto, an overaged 5'9" forward at #86. I'm going to barf.
This was supposed to be an opportunity to correct the size imbalance in our system, with an injection of bigger players to surround those smaller, less physical prospects already on the farm. We're failing miserably at that.
Mason Geertsen is still on the board, and we let him go for this guy.
This isn't fun any more.
Again, a puzzling pick, a small player who will be disadvantaged in the NHL as it is currently being run. Further, it's overkill to take another risk on this type of player, when we did so in the last round.
Now, I'm familiar with Sven Andrighetto, a Québec-based blogger swears by him and sang his praises all season, but it's still a huge gamble. The kid may be 'big for his size' and have all the skill in the world, but he's been passed over two years in a row in the draft. For all the stockiness he has, so does Brendan Gallagher, and he was mauled by the Senators during the playoffs.
There were arguments that he was chosen precisely because of his age and status as an overager, so that he will be able to go to Hamilton this very fall, and chip in some offence, but again, he's another young, smaller kid joining a team full of them. Not a good mix.
Philosophically, this was a bad pick, a bad bet on the wrong horse. We've already put down a bet on a longshot at #54. There were better options. such as Hudson Fasching or Anton Slepyshev, big talented forwards who can score and who fell in the draft, and again would have been a better complement to our prospects.
My personal favourite, big, tough, nasty Mason Geertsen of the Vancouver Giants, a player who is not loaded with talent but has lots of heart and plays really hard, was still available, and again would have improved our size profile on the blue line. If one of him or Mr. Diaby panned out, we'd have a good complementary piece. If both did, we'd be laughing.
A safer pick might also have been Jackson Houck, also of the Giants, and he could have been the Doug Risebrough-type of player, with decent size at 6', 190 lbs and a lot of snarl to his game, and leadership skills. While Louis Leblanc reportedly balks at being groomed as a third-line checker, this kid would embrace the role and give it all he has.
But...
Mason Geertsen goes top of the fourth, 93rd overall to the Avalanche. His Vancouver Giants teammate Jackson Houck goes next to the Oilers. Right around where I thought Mr. Geertsen would go, we should have grabbed him with our second third-round pick. Mr. Houck I'm not so high on, think he's the second coming of Mike Hough, but some analysts thought he might go in the second round, which was insane. Fourth round is appropriate for him also.
I was starting to lose it:
- It's much too early to pronounce on this draft, but I'm waffling between a debacle or a fiasco.
Sure, some hyperbole, a little levity to lighten up the proceedings, except...
- Pick #116: And I pronounced it as such before I found out we'd drafted Martin Reway, a 5'9" forward who scored 22 goals in the LHJMQ this year.
Debacle? Fiasco? So hard to make the call.
En français, on dirait 'une débandade.'
- Let me restate that the only reason these mini-players are available is because every other team understands that, as skilled as they are, the refs and Jeremy Jacobs won't let them be successful.
What more is there to say here? Trevor Timmins, when asked about this pick, explained that it was a "homerun swing", and I understand what he means. Huge talent, low chance of making it, but if he does he could pay off big. But wasn't the Lehkonen or Andrighetto pick the homerun swing? How many of these does one take? How about moving the runners, just making contact?
Again, Hudson Fasching was still available at this point, and so was Mitchell Wheaton, a 6'4" prospect from the defenceman factory that is the Kelowna Rockets. There were other options than another undersized offensive forward. By now the decision-making is baffling.
- Pick 176: The Canadiens take Jérémy Grégoire in the sixth round. Again, I've seen some good writeups on this kid but haven't seen him play. Funny that nhl.com lists him as either 5'11" or 6', depending which page of their website you look at.
Happy to take a local boy here, might as well.
No arguments with this pick. It's actually a relief. Local boy? Check. Good size? Check. Plays gritty, will complement the skilled forwards we have on the books? Check.
Even so, I felt deflated.
The fact that the Canadiens gave up their seventh-rounder in exchange for Florida's 2014's 7th is merciful. I'm not sure I could have taken any more.
The fact that the Canadiens made this trade was mildly puzzling, as customarily the price for a pick today is a pick one round higher the next year. In this case though, Trevor Timmins indicated that they had no one on their list, or anyone left that any scout was advocating for, so the pick didn't have much value. The disparity might stem from the fact that it was probably the Canadiens flogging it, instead of a team running around looking for a pick.
The Canadiens staff must have thought that next year, they might be in a different situation. While a seventh may not sound like much, at last year's draft we didn't have one, and giant Victoriaville goalie Brandon Whitney was still on the board deep into the seventh. Had we kept our seventh we could have snapped him up before he fell any further, and bolstered our organizational depth that way. The odds are, in any case, that the Florida pick will be closer to the top of the round, as opposed to the bottom as this year's pick was, so that may in itself be a benefit.
So what did we learn at this year's draft? Probably that we shouldn't go in with any expectations, and that we should let the pros handle the delicate work. But it's no fun that way.
I'll be sure to harrumph my disapproval many times in the near future, with liberal use of 'I told you so's when appropriate, but glossing over instances where I was misguided, instead pointing to the many preambles and caveats sprinkled in here to cover my flanks.
Tuesday, 2 July 2013
The Phoenix Coyotes will become the Seattle Sea Wolves
While the Coyotes endure their death throes, reports out of Seattle show that the Key Arena is holding back dates for next winter in case they're needed for hockey. A staff member states that the arena will be ready if needed by an NHL team.
Back in Glendale, council members are damned if they do, damned if they don't. The Faustian bargain they're presented with means that either they use public money to enrich local hockey players and millionaires while fans stay away in droves, or they vote no and the team leaves, presenting them with an empty arena and massive loan payments to cover.
In essence, town council is asked to chip in $15M/year to the Renaissance Group, a consortium ofshystersbusinessmen who want to buy the team at a discount from the league, but assume no financial risk, passing that on to taxpayers. In return, Renaissance would 'manage' the arena, as strenuous as that is, and would provide other financial benefits, like for example, a $3 surcharge on tickets. Which, as Neil deMause asks, begs the question: if it's so easy to tack on a $3 surcharge to a $15 ticket, why haven't the Coyotes been doing that all along. Ugly, slimy stuff.
The kicker is that the Renaissance group can up and leave in five years if certain conditions aren't met, but the city of Glendale has no such out-clause, they're bound for the whole 15 years.
Meanwhile, the good people of Québec are still building an arena to hand over to Pierre-Karl Péladeau, so he can ice a reborn Nordiques franchise, and charge them exorbitant fees for tickets and seat licences and cable fees to watch the games, over a cable system that he, incidentally, also owns.
Back in Glendale, council members are damned if they do, damned if they don't. The Faustian bargain they're presented with means that either they use public money to enrich local hockey players and millionaires while fans stay away in droves, or they vote no and the team leaves, presenting them with an empty arena and massive loan payments to cover.
In essence, town council is asked to chip in $15M/year to the Renaissance Group, a consortium of
The kicker is that the Renaissance group can up and leave in five years if certain conditions aren't met, but the city of Glendale has no such out-clause, they're bound for the whole 15 years.
Meanwhile, the good people of Québec are still building an arena to hand over to Pierre-Karl Péladeau, so he can ice a reborn Nordiques franchise, and charge them exorbitant fees for tickets and seat licences and cable fees to watch the games, over a cable system that he, incidentally, also owns.
Danny Kristo for Christian Thomas: Running to stand still.
So the Canadiens, mere weeks after signing the long-awaited, dare we say recalcitrant Danny Kristo, flip him to the Rangers for Christian Thomas. Hmmmm....
So we had a skilled, speedy but relatively small (by today's NHL trends) right winger, and decided to trade him for a skilled, speedy but definitely small right winger. That's not even "quatre trente sous pour une piastre".
To get on my hobby horse again, I would have preferred that we trade him for a bigger, grittier forward, even if he was a more marginal talent, to even out our prospect and forward mix in Hamilton. Instead, we've gone sugar for brown sugar. Slightly different flavour, but essentially the same.
Of course, since this is the dawning of the age of Bickell-rius, the odds that a team will give up a big bruising forward for a smaller guy who actually knows how to play hockey and put the puck in the net are slim to none. Every team will hitch their wagon to the Chicago star, and brood over their big guys for years until they incubate, as Mr. Bickell did after four seasons in the AHL.
The reasons for this trade are obscure, unspoken, but it's easy for aggrieved Canadiens fans to leap to the conclusion that Danny Kristo never wanted to be here in the first place. His signature on the contract this spring was nothing more than a marriage of convenience, expedient to knock a year off the wait time to arbitration. We were used, abused, and now feel unclean.
That stinging feeling we're experiencing about the cheeks is because Mr. Kristo was a dark horse candidate to replace Michael Ryder, if not right out of training camp, at some point this season. He was more mature, we convinced ourselves, after four years in college, and was ready to step up, or very close. Now we have another guy in Hamilton who made the AHL last season, to go with our own cavalcade of sophomores. Again, the mix isn't quite optimal in that regard.
I could rant and rave about this trade, and assail Marc Bergevin, but I suspect he's well aware of all these issues, and did the best he could under the circumstances. It's hard to believe he wasn't under some duress.
Farewell Mr. Kristo, we hardly knew ye. We'll warm up our pipes and give you a lusty greeting when you first set foot on New Forum ice.
And to Mr. Thomas, welcome, I hope you enjoy the show.
So we had a skilled, speedy but relatively small (by today's NHL trends) right winger, and decided to trade him for a skilled, speedy but definitely small right winger. That's not even "quatre trente sous pour une piastre".
To get on my hobby horse again, I would have preferred that we trade him for a bigger, grittier forward, even if he was a more marginal talent, to even out our prospect and forward mix in Hamilton. Instead, we've gone sugar for brown sugar. Slightly different flavour, but essentially the same.
Of course, since this is the dawning of the age of Bickell-rius, the odds that a team will give up a big bruising forward for a smaller guy who actually knows how to play hockey and put the puck in the net are slim to none. Every team will hitch their wagon to the Chicago star, and brood over their big guys for years until they incubate, as Mr. Bickell did after four seasons in the AHL.
The reasons for this trade are obscure, unspoken, but it's easy for aggrieved Canadiens fans to leap to the conclusion that Danny Kristo never wanted to be here in the first place. His signature on the contract this spring was nothing more than a marriage of convenience, expedient to knock a year off the wait time to arbitration. We were used, abused, and now feel unclean.
That stinging feeling we're experiencing about the cheeks is because Mr. Kristo was a dark horse candidate to replace Michael Ryder, if not right out of training camp, at some point this season. He was more mature, we convinced ourselves, after four years in college, and was ready to step up, or very close. Now we have another guy in Hamilton who made the AHL last season, to go with our own cavalcade of sophomores. Again, the mix isn't quite optimal in that regard.
I could rant and rave about this trade, and assail Marc Bergevin, but I suspect he's well aware of all these issues, and did the best he could under the circumstances. It's hard to believe he wasn't under some duress.
Farewell Mr. Kristo, we hardly knew ye. We'll warm up our pipes and give you a lusty greeting when you first set foot on New Forum ice.
And to Mr. Thomas, welcome, I hope you enjoy the show.
'Hal Gill hates Michel Therrien' is a rumour, nothing more
Okay, let's nip this rumour in the bud. Hal Gill didn't say he didn't want to play for Michel Therrien. At least, we can't state that for certain. He's not on the record as such.
This all started from a blurb from Dave Stubbs' article. The quote:
Now, some sharp-minded HIO'istes deduced that it must have been Hal Gill who said that. That's not a bad guess, but is just a guess nonetheless. Whoever the 'prominent UFA' is, we can't say for certain.
This all started from a blurb from Dave Stubbs' article. The quote:
"One prominent unrestricted free agent I’ve spoken with since regular-season’s end could be a nice fit in Montreal at a decent price and would fill a Habs need.
"But then I floated the name of Therrien among potential Canadiens coaches, a suggestion that drew 30 seconds of stone-cold silence. Finally:
“If that happens,” he said, “I’ve got 29 teams I can play for.”
Now, some sharp-minded HIO'istes deduced that it must have been Hal Gill who said that. That's not a bad guess, but is just a guess nonetheless. Whoever the 'prominent UFA' is, we can't say for certain.
The firefighter loss of life tragedy in Prescott, Arizona.
Regarding the loss of the 19 firefighters in Prescott, Arizona, there are a lot of questions to answer once we deal with the shock and grief of the friends and loved ones. There will be an inquiry, technical details will come out, and undoubtedly we'll find out that mistakes were made, and we'll try to ensure that it never happens again.
As far as broad questions go, whether we should risk lives to fight forest fires to save empty homes, the issue of tradeoffs will be examined. We may still be too aggressive when dealing with forest fires, and I have no doubt it happened in this case. The issue of the wildland-urban interface is something we've been struggling with as a society. Whether we continue to allow residential dwellings to be built in difficult terrain nestled in trees is one concern. Another is what is the homeowner(s)' responsibility in terms of risk abatement, and what resources should be deployed to protect these homes. How binding should evacuation orders be?
Also re-assessed will be how wise it is to stamp out every forest fire, as Smokey Bear as advocated for decades. This practice leads to the interruption of what some experts believe is a natural cycle, with regular naturally-occurring fires clearing out forests, thinning out the underbrush and reducing the amount of fuel on the surface. When we do get fires now, instead of having mature forests with lots of space between trees and a manageable amount of ground fuels, we have forests choked with scrawny trees and decades of leaves, mulch and needles on the ground, and the fires burn at higher intensities. Maybe we should let fires burn more often, and just monitor them, and only intervene in specific instances. This wouldn't be popular with the forestry sector however. Every cut block lost is a loss of profit for the companies and jobs for loggers.
In the narrower sense, when we do decide to fight a fire, we have to have personnel on the ground attacking it. There is only so much that can be done from the air. Much like the military have told us, you need 'boots on the ground'. And trucks and pumps and bulldozers. Without ground work, the only way to extinguish a forest fire is to wait for a wet winter, and even then sometimes a fire will flare up again in the spring.
As far as what happened in this specific instance, I hate to second-guess in light of the tragedy, but we'll find out that several mistakes were made by the firefighters themselves and their managers. These firefighters were an elite, advance team, they were put in a precarious position and given an aggressive mission probably, and some conservative decisions should have been made at some point to get/keep them out of harm's way.
There are several ways to ensure firefighter safety in a wildland setting. There are acronyms that crews and bosses use to remind themselves to always be aware. There is the 30-30-30 rule (in Canada), which states that you have to be extra careful when the temperature rises above 30 degrees, the relative humidity drops below 30%, and the wind gusts above 30 km/hr, because conditions can change very rapidly and the fire will burn with extra intensity. Updated, effective weather forecasting is crucial for crews. The use of lookouts, trained crew members who do nothing but keep an eye on the fire and report back to crew bosses when conditions change, is mandatory. So are regular crew briefings, during which any issues are discussed, everyone is made aware of the plan of attack, and hazards to be aware of are highlighted. Effective communications also mean having radios for everyone and using them properly to keep track of everyone. Crews always need to have two ways out, two paths they can follow to escape, at minimum, and a safe zone they can reach quickly, where they can take refuge if the fire changes and they need to back away. The use of the aluminium shelters is an absolute last resort, they should only be deployed in the rarest of cases, and when they are they are even more rarely effective.
Unfortunately, these principles were developed at great cost, when other crews were lost in the past, and are sometimes forgotten and may need to be reinforced. We'll learn, and most probably re-learn some lessons due to this incident, and hopefully this kind of tragic, preventable loss will never occur again.
As far as broad questions go, whether we should risk lives to fight forest fires to save empty homes, the issue of tradeoffs will be examined. We may still be too aggressive when dealing with forest fires, and I have no doubt it happened in this case. The issue of the wildland-urban interface is something we've been struggling with as a society. Whether we continue to allow residential dwellings to be built in difficult terrain nestled in trees is one concern. Another is what is the homeowner(s)' responsibility in terms of risk abatement, and what resources should be deployed to protect these homes. How binding should evacuation orders be?
Also re-assessed will be how wise it is to stamp out every forest fire, as Smokey Bear as advocated for decades. This practice leads to the interruption of what some experts believe is a natural cycle, with regular naturally-occurring fires clearing out forests, thinning out the underbrush and reducing the amount of fuel on the surface. When we do get fires now, instead of having mature forests with lots of space between trees and a manageable amount of ground fuels, we have forests choked with scrawny trees and decades of leaves, mulch and needles on the ground, and the fires burn at higher intensities. Maybe we should let fires burn more often, and just monitor them, and only intervene in specific instances. This wouldn't be popular with the forestry sector however. Every cut block lost is a loss of profit for the companies and jobs for loggers.
In the narrower sense, when we do decide to fight a fire, we have to have personnel on the ground attacking it. There is only so much that can be done from the air. Much like the military have told us, you need 'boots on the ground'. And trucks and pumps and bulldozers. Without ground work, the only way to extinguish a forest fire is to wait for a wet winter, and even then sometimes a fire will flare up again in the spring.
As far as what happened in this specific instance, I hate to second-guess in light of the tragedy, but we'll find out that several mistakes were made by the firefighters themselves and their managers. These firefighters were an elite, advance team, they were put in a precarious position and given an aggressive mission probably, and some conservative decisions should have been made at some point to get/keep them out of harm's way.
There are several ways to ensure firefighter safety in a wildland setting. There are acronyms that crews and bosses use to remind themselves to always be aware. There is the 30-30-30 rule (in Canada), which states that you have to be extra careful when the temperature rises above 30 degrees, the relative humidity drops below 30%, and the wind gusts above 30 km/hr, because conditions can change very rapidly and the fire will burn with extra intensity. Updated, effective weather forecasting is crucial for crews. The use of lookouts, trained crew members who do nothing but keep an eye on the fire and report back to crew bosses when conditions change, is mandatory. So are regular crew briefings, during which any issues are discussed, everyone is made aware of the plan of attack, and hazards to be aware of are highlighted. Effective communications also mean having radios for everyone and using them properly to keep track of everyone. Crews always need to have two ways out, two paths they can follow to escape, at minimum, and a safe zone they can reach quickly, where they can take refuge if the fire changes and they need to back away. The use of the aluminium shelters is an absolute last resort, they should only be deployed in the rarest of cases, and when they are they are even more rarely effective.
Unfortunately, these principles were developed at great cost, when other crews were lost in the past, and are sometimes forgotten and may need to be reinforced. We'll learn, and most probably re-learn some lessons due to this incident, and hopefully this kind of tragic, preventable loss will never occur again.
The Canadiens should claim Jeff Schultz on waivers.
So Jeff Schultz is about to be bought out and is on waivers now. We've been over this ground before, how his size and style of play would complement our defence corps. Would it make sense to claim his $2.75M contract right now? Instead of waiting for him to hit free agency and having to bid for his services? We wouldn't even have to give up an asset in return, and if it doesn't work out, he's only under contract for a year.
It seems that there are extenuating circumstances to his being a healthy scratch, beyond the obvious 'he wasn't good enough'. According to Adam Vingan:
Depending on Marc Bergevin's plans for the cap room he increased by buying out Tomas Kaberle, like the Vincent Lecavalier sweepstakes for example, it may make sense to just grab the big Capitals defenceman and plug him into our lineup.
It seems that there are extenuating circumstances to his being a healthy scratch, beyond the obvious 'he wasn't good enough'. According to Adam Vingan:
Last season, Schultz fell victim to head coach Adam Oates's philosophy of playing his defensemen on their natural side, Therefore, Schultz, who shoots left, was the odd man out behind Karl Alzner, John Erskine and Jack Hillen and did not play after March 31.
Depending on Marc Bergevin's plans for the cap room he increased by buying out Tomas Kaberle, like the Vincent Lecavalier sweepstakes for example, it may make sense to just grab the big Capitals defenceman and plug him into our lineup.
Will Vincent Lecavalier avoid Montréal, or embrace it?
It's surprising the number of Canadiens fans on social media who presciently claim that "Vinny doesn't want to play here", or "He would never want to deal with the crazy pressure/fishbowl/difficult grocery situation."
While blogs and other outlets are an open forum and everyone is welcome to state their opinions, on this issue we have a few indications of what is going on, and by no means are they all negative. Sure, he's going to be in demand, his asking price will be high, he may not be a fit, his family situation may warrant that he stays in Florida or the Southeast, but these are not decisive or even certain.
Another factor which is underplayed, in fact completely absent from the discussion, is that Vincent and his wife are both from Québec, as are most of the uncles and aunts and grandparents of the kids. Now that is only one consideration, but surely it will play a part in the decision? Vincent is no dummy. He may think the pressure may be too great in Montréal, but he may also think that having his kids live here and learning the French language and getting to know their family better and hanging with their grandparents is a great opportunity.
To say nothing about how good the bleu-blanc-rouge #44 might look on him, and how that might speak to him, even though he had the Red Wings as his favourite team growing up. As a teen, you do things to carve out an identity, and maybe being an Yzerman fan was one for him, but the Canadiens will still have some pull on a Montréal boy.
So while all the detractors make some valid points, let's keep an open mind and see how it plays out. As much as there are reasons for Vincent to choose not to come here, and as much as there are reasons for the Canadiens to choose to not sign him, there are countervailing forces as well.
Let's not sell Marc Bergevin and Geoff Molson short, they have a few cards up their sleeves that other locales don't, they're not completely devoid of ammunition. They can make a strong bid for his services, and both parties can decide. I'm not saying it's likely he signs here, but there is a definite possibility, contrary to what the common wisdom seems to dictate.
While blogs and other outlets are an open forum and everyone is welcome to state their opinions, on this issue we have a few indications of what is going on, and by no means are they all negative. Sure, he's going to be in demand, his asking price will be high, he may not be a fit, his family situation may warrant that he stays in Florida or the Southeast, but these are not decisive or even certain.
Another factor which is underplayed, in fact completely absent from the discussion, is that Vincent and his wife are both from Québec, as are most of the uncles and aunts and grandparents of the kids. Now that is only one consideration, but surely it will play a part in the decision? Vincent is no dummy. He may think the pressure may be too great in Montréal, but he may also think that having his kids live here and learning the French language and getting to know their family better and hanging with their grandparents is a great opportunity.
To say nothing about how good the bleu-blanc-rouge #44 might look on him, and how that might speak to him, even though he had the Red Wings as his favourite team growing up. As a teen, you do things to carve out an identity, and maybe being an Yzerman fan was one for him, but the Canadiens will still have some pull on a Montréal boy.
So while all the detractors make some valid points, let's keep an open mind and see how it plays out. As much as there are reasons for Vincent to choose not to come here, and as much as there are reasons for the Canadiens to choose to not sign him, there are countervailing forces as well.
Let's not sell Marc Bergevin and Geoff Molson short, they have a few cards up their sleeves that other locales don't, they're not completely devoid of ammunition. They can make a strong bid for his services, and both parties can decide. I'm not saying it's likely he signs here, but there is a definite possibility, contrary to what the common wisdom seems to dictate.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)