So I'm taking a relatively Zen approach to this Canadiens' season, having decided early on, before training camp, that this was a fundamentally flawed team, without a #1 centre, a #2 centre, and a first pairing left defenceman. Those are crucial elements to a team's success, there's no way to patch this need. It's not like a couple years ago when we were weak on the right wing, and had to shift over a couple of left wingers.
This led me to believe that the Canadiens won't make the playoffs, and that the best-case scenario is that the Canadiens get decent seasons from their trade pieces and make a few good trades prior to the deadline, to stock up on picks before the draft. I don't want the Canadiens in a fight for the playoffs, clinging to Tomas Plekanec and Torrey Mitchell, and even worse, maybe trading for another round of Jordie Benns and Dwight Kings and Steve Otts as the deadline nears.
So I'm going to remain phlegmatic as the storm roils and the hounds bay for more blood and the Canadiens sink to the bottom. I'll keep watching games but won't be expecting wins, I'll be happy with glimmers from Charles Hudon and Jacob de la Rose and Artturi Lehkonen.
Tonight, watching L'Antichambre, I notice that they put up a graphic showing the Canadiens at the very bottom of the League in shooting percentage, which is sad in and of itself. What is surprising is that the Canadiens are last by such a wide margin. The Islanders are 25th at 7.8%, then the Rangers at 7.3%, then the Ducks, Coyotes and Stars clustered around 6.5%, and the Oilers 30th at 5.3%.
The Canadiens are at 3.9%. One and half percent, roughly, from the second worst team. It's not statistically insignificant. It's a healthy margin.
Based on the comments I'd read on social media, Michel Therrien's brand of hockey was boring and defensive, and I disagreed about that specifically, but anyway, the same comments would state that Claude Julien's puck control system would take care of all that. We'd control the puck instead of dumping the puck in, and by controlling the puck, boy howdy, that's how you score goals.
Maybe the Canadiens are caught out this season, with a team built for Michel Therrien's fast-break style and ill-suited for the Claude Julien system. Maybe all it will take is a few more games for his system to become second-nature for the boys, and for it to bear fruit. Maybe next year, when Mike McCarron has moved up, and a couple more moves are made, will the new coach have the team he really wants.
But for now, as an indicator, the shooting percentage, and the gap between us and the rest of the pack is shocking.
Thursday, 19 October 2017
Sunday, 8 October 2017
Vancouver has buyer's remorse on Olli Juolevi, covets Victor Mete
Interesting discussion on TSN 1040 Vancouver this week on how 2016 draft 5th overall pick Olli Juolevi is going back to Sweden this season, after an uninspiring training camp, and disappointing results and reports from his previous season in London with the Knights. The hosts bat around how their crown jewel didn’t really improve last season, how he was reportedly “bored” with the junior game and had a cocky, arrogant vibe.
Meanwhile, they cast jealous glances at Victor Mete, who they say improved every game he played, every benchmark he had to meet, worked hard at his game, and is now playing NHL games as a lowly 2016 4th-round pick while Mr. Juolevi is nowhere near ready, appearing stagnant.
They took time to rue some other Jim Benning moves, notably his gambling on trades for players who were drafted high but were not faring well in their situations, and rattled off names like Linden Vey and Emerson Etem and others who didn’t pay off, at the cost of a second-round pick each. The Derrick Pouliot trade falls in this sphere, and they hate the fact that again, Jim Benning chipped in a fourth-rounder on top of Andrey Pedan, a disturbing habit on his part. Since you could get a Victor Mete, let’s say, if you had a fourth-rounder to spend.
And as always, they trotted out the fifth-round pick they had to offer to sweeten the Zack Kassian for Brandon Prust trade. Based on the tone of their voice, Brandon Prust has now lost all of the luster he had when he rolled into Montréal with a UFA contract, proclaiming “There’s a new sheriff in town.”
The Canucks got boned two years in a row, dropping down three slots in the draft lottery, especially the Auston Matthews-Patrik Laine season. Especially when you consider that they didn’t outright tank, they were just bad and ravaged by injuries. I daresay Vancouver fans deserved Patrik Laine, he’d have looked great on the Sedins’ wing.
Olli Juolevi was described as a safe pick, with maybe not the high ceiling Mikhail Sergachev had, but more certain to be an NHL regular, having a higher floor. I remember Jim Benning speaking highly of him, how he’d be your do-it-all first pairing defenceman for a long time, how he was making the smart decision all the time, he maybe wouldn’t wow you but he made things look easy.
Now, it seems he has the diva aspect to a high pick after all, he’s not your no-nonsense Nick Lidstrom, as some would float, compared to the temperamental Russian-with-KHL-risk tag some tried to attach to young Mr. Sergachev. Mikhail was seen as more boom-or-bust.
I never had a doubt who I wanted, if we weren’t going Top 3 or getting Pierre-Luc Dubois, I wanted the second coming of Larry Robinson, or at least Roman Hamrlik, the big strong defenceman who can skate, pass, shoot, defend, and seemingly has no warts. I was glad to have Misha at #9, and am sorry we had to let him go.
Meanwhile, they cast jealous glances at Victor Mete, who they say improved every game he played, every benchmark he had to meet, worked hard at his game, and is now playing NHL games as a lowly 2016 4th-round pick while Mr. Juolevi is nowhere near ready, appearing stagnant.
They took time to rue some other Jim Benning moves, notably his gambling on trades for players who were drafted high but were not faring well in their situations, and rattled off names like Linden Vey and Emerson Etem and others who didn’t pay off, at the cost of a second-round pick each. The Derrick Pouliot trade falls in this sphere, and they hate the fact that again, Jim Benning chipped in a fourth-rounder on top of Andrey Pedan, a disturbing habit on his part. Since you could get a Victor Mete, let’s say, if you had a fourth-rounder to spend.
And as always, they trotted out the fifth-round pick they had to offer to sweeten the Zack Kassian for Brandon Prust trade. Based on the tone of their voice, Brandon Prust has now lost all of the luster he had when he rolled into Montréal with a UFA contract, proclaiming “There’s a new sheriff in town.”
The Canucks got boned two years in a row, dropping down three slots in the draft lottery, especially the Auston Matthews-Patrik Laine season. Especially when you consider that they didn’t outright tank, they were just bad and ravaged by injuries. I daresay Vancouver fans deserved Patrik Laine, he’d have looked great on the Sedins’ wing.
Olli Juolevi was described as a safe pick, with maybe not the high ceiling Mikhail Sergachev had, but more certain to be an NHL regular, having a higher floor. I remember Jim Benning speaking highly of him, how he’d be your do-it-all first pairing defenceman for a long time, how he was making the smart decision all the time, he maybe wouldn’t wow you but he made things look easy.
Now, it seems he has the diva aspect to a high pick after all, he’s not your no-nonsense Nick Lidstrom, as some would float, compared to the temperamental Russian-with-KHL-risk tag some tried to attach to young Mr. Sergachev. Mikhail was seen as more boom-or-bust.
I never had a doubt who I wanted, if we weren’t going Top 3 or getting Pierre-Luc Dubois, I wanted the second coming of Larry Robinson, or at least Roman Hamrlik, the big strong defenceman who can skate, pass, shoot, defend, and seemingly has no warts. I was glad to have Misha at #9, and am sorry we had to let him go.
Thursday, 5 October 2017
My position paper on Victor Mete
I love Victor Mete as a prospect we got high in the fourth round.
1) Victor Mete is too small and frail to play in the NHL. He's a 19 year old who still has a lot of growing and maturing to do, physically. Saying that he's stocky doesn't address that fact. Of course he's stocky and strong. If he wasn't, he wouldn't be a successful OHL player, thriving against bigger peers with an explosive stride and low centre of gravity.
2) Referring to Jakob Chychrun and Mikhail Sergachev as young defencemen who can play in the NHL is not relevant. Those two had an NHL player build the year they were drafted. They were physically mature last season. Jakob Chychrun was 6'2" and 200 lbs at the Combine, and described as if carved out of rock. Mikhail Sergachev was 6'2" and 221 lbs.
3) Referring to Torey Krug or Ryan Ellis or Troy Stecher as undersized but agile puck movers who can thrive in "today's NHL" is not relevant. Those players were 22 when they made the NHL for good.
4) Playing Victor Mete in NHL games is risking his health and his player development. There's a real chance you could stall or derail his development with an unfortunate injury. His head will be at concussive-elbow-height for most NHL players. Zac Rinaldo is still in the league.
5) One of Marc Bergevin's better-known quotes, one of his mantras that are/should be an organizational touchstone is that 'you often regret calling up a player too early, you seldom regret calling up a player too late'. Having Victor Mete held up as a potential partner for Shea Weber is a direct contravention of that principle.
6) If Victor Mete was a potential third-pairing option who could be eased into the game alongside a trusty veteran who'd be a perfect complement off and on the ice, if he could be babied on to the powerplay and held off the penalty kill as a #6-7 d-man, if his skillset worked perfectly with the rest of the defensive rotation in a supporting role, maybe it would be a reasonable gamble to hurry along his development curve. Instead, the reason he's staying with the club is because he's the 'perfect' complement to first-pairing stud Shea Weber. His skillset and development doesn't match up to the expected role, not by a long shot.
7) The reason he's being kept with le Grand Club is because we divested ourselves of Andrei Markov, Nathan Beaulieu and Alexei Emelin in the off-season, and because we lost Mark Barberio on waivers last winter. Now, each of these decisions is defensible, there were pros and cons, it's reasonable to argue that with the complications of the 23-player roster and waivers and the expansion draft and arbitration and the salary cap, all these player moves had to happen.
The contingencies failed, however. The reason Victor Mete is being given a chance to fail is because none of the backup plans panned out.
8) Most importantly, we're flailing and going for a Hail Mary when there's no need, and no chance of it succeeding. The Canadiens, despite all the talk of the 'window' and the 'must-win', are a fundamentally flawed, undermanned unit. The Canadiens don't have a proper #1 centre, don't have a proper #2 centre, and don't have a proper first pairing left defenceman. We're not even sure we currently have an appropriate backup goalie.
This roster is not going to win the Stanley Cup. It won't even go far in the playoffs. My guess is they'll miss the playoffs.
With this in mind, you shouldn't throw good money after bad. You shouldn't risk the development of an organizational asset who'll benefit the team long-term for a short-term high-risk low-reward gamble. Even if Victor Mete has as decent a season as can be expected from a 19-year-old fourth-round pick, it won't put the Canadiens over the top. It might mean five or six more points in the regular season, but it's not the Penguins adding Ron Francis to the Lemieux-Jagr forward corps.
Even lacking Andrei Markov or a decent Michael del Zotto-type substitute, the wise, better move is for Victor to go back to London, dominate the OHL and his peers as a #1 defenceman, be a leader on his team, get on the World Junior squad and see what he can do on a team stacked with talent and high-pressure no-tomorrow games, and get one year older, wiser, and more mature. That's what will pay off in the long-term, not some half-baked scheme to see if he can do better than Brandon Davidson.
We can't refuse to accept the situation we're in. Marc Bergevin was left holding the bag when he couldn't come to an agreement with Andrei, and is now sitting on $8.5M of cap space and Karl Alzner as his only credible, tested option on the left side of the blue line. Éric Desjardins isn't driving down from Laval and walking in the door.
In that situation, you take your lumps. You understand that it will be a long, tough season. You suffer through it, you showcase your trade deadline chips and you plan ahead for the 2018 Draft. You cross your fingers for a win at the Rasmus Dahlin lottery.
You don't drag down Victor Mete with you.
1) Victor Mete is too small and frail to play in the NHL. He's a 19 year old who still has a lot of growing and maturing to do, physically. Saying that he's stocky doesn't address that fact. Of course he's stocky and strong. If he wasn't, he wouldn't be a successful OHL player, thriving against bigger peers with an explosive stride and low centre of gravity.
2) Referring to Jakob Chychrun and Mikhail Sergachev as young defencemen who can play in the NHL is not relevant. Those two had an NHL player build the year they were drafted. They were physically mature last season. Jakob Chychrun was 6'2" and 200 lbs at the Combine, and described as if carved out of rock. Mikhail Sergachev was 6'2" and 221 lbs.
3) Referring to Torey Krug or Ryan Ellis or Troy Stecher as undersized but agile puck movers who can thrive in "today's NHL" is not relevant. Those players were 22 when they made the NHL for good.
4) Playing Victor Mete in NHL games is risking his health and his player development. There's a real chance you could stall or derail his development with an unfortunate injury. His head will be at concussive-elbow-height for most NHL players. Zac Rinaldo is still in the league.
5) One of Marc Bergevin's better-known quotes, one of his mantras that are/should be an organizational touchstone is that 'you often regret calling up a player too early, you seldom regret calling up a player too late'. Having Victor Mete held up as a potential partner for Shea Weber is a direct contravention of that principle.
6) If Victor Mete was a potential third-pairing option who could be eased into the game alongside a trusty veteran who'd be a perfect complement off and on the ice, if he could be babied on to the powerplay and held off the penalty kill as a #6-7 d-man, if his skillset worked perfectly with the rest of the defensive rotation in a supporting role, maybe it would be a reasonable gamble to hurry along his development curve. Instead, the reason he's staying with the club is because he's the 'perfect' complement to first-pairing stud Shea Weber. His skillset and development doesn't match up to the expected role, not by a long shot.
7) The reason he's being kept with le Grand Club is because we divested ourselves of Andrei Markov, Nathan Beaulieu and Alexei Emelin in the off-season, and because we lost Mark Barberio on waivers last winter. Now, each of these decisions is defensible, there were pros and cons, it's reasonable to argue that with the complications of the 23-player roster and waivers and the expansion draft and arbitration and the salary cap, all these player moves had to happen.
The contingencies failed, however. The reason Victor Mete is being given a chance to fail is because none of the backup plans panned out.
8) Most importantly, we're flailing and going for a Hail Mary when there's no need, and no chance of it succeeding. The Canadiens, despite all the talk of the 'window' and the 'must-win', are a fundamentally flawed, undermanned unit. The Canadiens don't have a proper #1 centre, don't have a proper #2 centre, and don't have a proper first pairing left defenceman. We're not even sure we currently have an appropriate backup goalie.
This roster is not going to win the Stanley Cup. It won't even go far in the playoffs. My guess is they'll miss the playoffs.
With this in mind, you shouldn't throw good money after bad. You shouldn't risk the development of an organizational asset who'll benefit the team long-term for a short-term high-risk low-reward gamble. Even if Victor Mete has as decent a season as can be expected from a 19-year-old fourth-round pick, it won't put the Canadiens over the top. It might mean five or six more points in the regular season, but it's not the Penguins adding Ron Francis to the Lemieux-Jagr forward corps.
Even lacking Andrei Markov or a decent Michael del Zotto-type substitute, the wise, better move is for Victor to go back to London, dominate the OHL and his peers as a #1 defenceman, be a leader on his team, get on the World Junior squad and see what he can do on a team stacked with talent and high-pressure no-tomorrow games, and get one year older, wiser, and more mature. That's what will pay off in the long-term, not some half-baked scheme to see if he can do better than Brandon Davidson.
We can't refuse to accept the situation we're in. Marc Bergevin was left holding the bag when he couldn't come to an agreement with Andrei, and is now sitting on $8.5M of cap space and Karl Alzner as his only credible, tested option on the left side of the blue line. Éric Desjardins isn't driving down from Laval and walking in the door.
In that situation, you take your lumps. You understand that it will be a long, tough season. You suffer through it, you showcase your trade deadline chips and you plan ahead for the 2018 Draft. You cross your fingers for a win at the Rasmus Dahlin lottery.
You don't drag down Victor Mete with you.
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